GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Extends rally to 196.60, eyes on 197.00
- GBP/JPY up 0.43%, on track for weekly gain over 0.40% amid resilient buyer momentum.
- Pair nears June 17 high at 196.83; close above 197.00 could open path to 198.00.
- RSI remains bullish; downside risks emerge below 195.29 Tenkan-sen support.
The GBP/JPY recovers and rallies for the second straight day, is up 0.43%, trades at 196.59, shy of reclaiming the 197.00, poised to finish the week with gains of over 0.40%. Market mood remains sour, but it was not an excuse for buyers to lift the cross-pair to fresh three-day highs.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY pair remains consolidating, ahead of breaking the June 17 high of 196.83. A breach of the latter clears the path to test 197.00. If the pair prints a daily close above the latter, buyers could target 198.00 as they launch an assault to the yearly high of 198.24.
From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms that the GBP/JPY remains bullish and that buyers are gathering momentum.
For a bearish move, sellers must drag the pair below the Tenkan-sen at 195.29. On further weakness, the GBP/JPY could dive to 194.82, where the Senkou Span A lies, followed by the Kijun-sen at 194.35.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
