GBP/JPY pivots 200-day MA, Hammond's spring statement may provide direction

  • GBP/JPY is sidelined around 200-day moving average since late Friday. 
  • Downside protected by ascending 50-hour moving average. 
  • Spring statement may provide direction. 

GBP/JPY's recovery from the March 2 low of 144.99 seems to have run out of steam as indicated by the ongoing consolidation around the 200-day moving average (MA) of 147.90. 

The gains above the 200-day MA have been capped by the soft tone in the equities this Tuesday morning in Asia. Meanwhile, the downside has been protected by the ascending 50-hour MA (now seen at 147.81). 

Focus on UK budget

UK Chancellor Philip Hammond's first-ever UK Spring statement is expected to keep austerity alive amid an uncertain economic outlook. That said, experts predict a brighter short-term outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The pound may catch a bid if Hammond announces a higher investment spending as suggested by Labour party, MP Nick Boles and Theresa May’s former policy adviser Nick Timothy. 

GBP/JPY Technical Levels

A break above 148.17 (resistance on 1-hour chart) would open doors for 148.55 (March 9 high + Feb. 22 low). A violation there could yield 149.43 (38.2% Fib R of Feb. 2 high - March 2 low). On the downside, breach of support at 147.11 (10-day MA) could yield a sell-off to 146.23 (March 7 low). A close lower would signal the recovery from 144.99 (March 2 low) has ended and would allow a re-test of the said level. 

  TREND INDEX OB/OS INDEX VOLATILY INDEX
15M Bearish Neutral Expanding
1H Strongly Bearish Neutral Low
4H Bearish Neutral Low
1D Bullish Neutral Shrinking
1W Bullish Neutral Expanding

 

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