GBP: Jobs data won't dent hawkish BoE – ING

We've just seen the release of UK jobs data for August. Unlike in the US, where the 'solid' labour market crumbled this summer, payrolled job losses were only a modest 8k in August. And there were no surprises in the earnings data, which remains at 4.7/4.8% YoY, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

GBP/USD is edging higher today

"As our UK economist, James Smith, notes, 'Today's data doesn't change a huge amount for the BoE. Many economists were surprised by how little emphasis the Bank seemed to put on the cooler jobs market in its August meeting. So barring a surprise spike in job losses, today's data was never likely to move the needle too much."

"We get inflation data tomorrow, where services inflation is likely to dip (though perhaps not quite as much as consensus expects). We're still narrowly favouring a November rate cut but a surprise spike in inflation tomorrow (one that's not driven by volatile categories) would probably change our mind on that.

"GBP/USD is edging higher today on the presumption that the BoE can hold its hawkish position for longer. And barring a big downside shock to tomorrow's August CPI data, we think Thursday's BoE event risk could be sterling positive too. We've got a year-end target for GBP/USD at 1.38, which could be met a little sooner."