GBP flat vs. USD with notably muted reaction to retail sales & PMI data – Scotiabank

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is also steady and consolidating in a tight range in the lower 1.33s, holding flat vs. the USD as we head into Friday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Markets still expect BoE easing

"Fundamental data releases were better than expected, with a notable surprise in retail sales for September and a surprise improvement in the manufacturing PMI that recovered back toward the 50 threshold. The lack of a reaction in the GBP is notable, suggesting that markets deemed the data not sufficient to warrant a meaningful adjustment in the outlook for the BoE."

"Markets are still pricing about 7bpts of easing for the next meeting in early November, 16bpts of easing by year end, and a cumulative 60 bpts by September 2026. The GBP’s overall technical picture remains worrisome, given its slow drift to the lower end of the recent range bound between 1.3250 support and resistance just above 1.3450."

"The RSI is leaning marginally bearish, having drifted back toward its recent lows around 40. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3280 and 1.3380."