GBP: EUR/GBP outlook remains soft – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

UK GDP is a bit disappointing, owing to a surprise fall in activity during September. The 0.1% third-quarter figure is a far cry from the 0.7% and 0.5% in the first and second quarters. Does that show the economy has slowed? Yes, but not as much as the figures suggest, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

BoE pause in December is the most likely outcome

“A lot of that strength seen in the first half of the year was in non-tradable and non-consumer sectors that have less to do with underlying economic fundamentals. The Bank of England has agreed that the true rate of growth was probably slower in the first half. However, we think the BoE/consensus forecast for the winter is a bit high, and while real wage growth should generate higher GDP, the pace is set to be fairly moderate in the near term before receiving a bit of a budget boost next year.

“GDP was a bit weaker than expected, but it's still not that surprising, particularly given the volatility in the recent data. The BoE is much more focused on the services inflation figures that we'll get next week. In the near-term, they're likely to remain sticky around 5%. Barring a downside surprise, we think a pause in December is the most likely outcome.”

“EUR/GBP has hovered just above 0.830 as a wide rate differential continues to put pressure on the pair. Given we see a low probability of the BoE cutting in December while our call is for a 50bp move by the ECB next month, we struggle to see much upside for EUR/GBP before year-end.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold meets contention near $4,420…for now

Gold extends its recovery past the $4,500 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The yellow metal’s advance comes amid the resurgence of some selling interest around the, improving risk sentiment, and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin’s massive storm is back: Why the sell-off is far from over

Bitcoin price action over the last few weeks has felt less like a normal, healthy correction and more like a slow grinding crash that continues to wreak havoc on holdings and trading accounts. And everything suggests that the dramatic crash isn’t over.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.