Funda and political wrap: G20 in focus, Brexit headlines encouraging

In respect to fundamental and political drivers today, the G20 finance ministers are in Argentina this week discussing topics form cryptocurrencies and trade, among other things. 

A key focus, with respect to trade, is where the line in the G20 statement where leaders committed to fighting protectionism and inward-looking policies was replaced by "We reaffirm the conclusions of our leaders on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognize the need for further dialogue and actions. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies..."We reaffirm the conclusions of our leaders on trade at the Hamburg Summit and recognize the need for further dialogue and actions. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies." seems as though Trump has been given the all clear to press on with his protectionist bias and a particular focus on China where he intends to slap on $60 billion in technology tariffs as soon as this week. Quite a U-turn in comparison to when, in July, the communique statement said all G20 countries would "continue to fight protectionism including all unfair trade practices." 

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had been crossing the wires, speaking from G20 saying he wants free and reciprocal trade and "This is not about protectionism, this is about free and fair trade."

Further statements as follows:

• There is a general view among G 20 to see China open its markets.
• Does not view US trade policy as my way or the highway.
• Has had direct discussions with Chinese on trade but progress has not been sufficient.
• US needs to be prepared to act in defence of free and fair trade.
• Steel and aluminium tariffs was a very small part of G 20 discussions.
• This is not about protectionism, this is about free and fair trade.
• Wants to make sure cryptocurrencies are not used by bad actors for terrorist financing, illicit activities.
• Talks on metal tariff exemptions are ongoing.

Key headlines ( sources: Forexlive, FT, Livesquawk) 

Brexit

 

• EU Barnier: Not at the end of the road on Brexit.
• Most difficult Brexit stage may be still to come.
• Clear UK commitment on Irish border.
• Other issues to be resolves are not negligible.
• Often final elements of negotiations that are most difficult.
• EU countries have very different Brexit concerns.
• Brexit negotiatons are based on UK red lines.
• Irish border issue must not be left pending.
• Irish backstop solution will be in the Brexit treaty.
• Transition period will help the UK's trade deal work.
• Irish ForMin Coveney: Yesterday ‘A Big Step Forward’ For Brexit Progress;
• -  Option To Extend Brexit Transition Period.
• EU Leaders: Prepared To Offer 'Appropriate Access' To UK Banks After Brexit.
• Irish PM Varadkar: Will Avoid Hard Border In Ireland.
• Germany Chancellor Merkel: Issues On Irish Border Is Of 'Central Importance'.
• EIB May Help Narrow EU Budget Gap After Breixt – Sueddeutsche.
• EU Official: Language For Brexit Financial Services Is ‘Ambiguous’.
• EU Official: Internal EU Debate Reflected In Brexit Financial Services Text.
• EU Official: EU Leaders Must Discuss Brexit Tactics, How Detailed Brexit Text Will Be.
• EU Official: Should Know By Wednesday Afternoon If There Is An Agreement On Brexit Deal.
• EU Official: If US Talks Fail, EU Will Decide On Trade Measures.
• EU's Barnier: Not At End Of Road; Irish Backstop Soln Will Be In Brexit Treaty.
• EU’s Tusk: EU’s Response To US Tariffs Will Be `Responsible'.
• EU Official: Declines To Elaborate On Brexit Concerns.
• EU Official: UK Hasn’t Made A Request For Summit To Discuss Sanctions.
• EU Official: EU Leaders Must Decide To Welcome Deal On Brexit Transition.
• EU Official: EU Summit To Discuss Brexit Negotiating Strategy.
• - Unsure That ‘All EU Countries’ Welcome Brexit Deal;
• EU Official: Summit Text To Reflect Talks With US Commerce Sec. Ross;
• - Urges EU To Be ‘More Responsible Than US On Trade’.
• EU Official: EU Isn’t Looking At More Sanctions Vs Russia Now.

Central Banks:

• BOJ Kuroda: Fed Or Any Other Central Bank Will Undoubtedly Normalise Monetary Policy If Their Economies Are In Good Shape And They Achieve Their Price Targets.
• -Don't Think Central Bank Policy Normalisation Will Have Direct Negative Impact On Global Growth.

White House

• Kremlin Spokesman: Putin & Trump Showed Interest In ‘Kick-Starting Economic Cooperation’.
• Kremlin Spokesman: Putin & Trump Discussed Possibility Of High-Level Meeting - RTRS.
• US Sen. Cornyn: Talks On Omnibus Bill Could Continue Over The Weekend.
• US House Speaker Ryan: Hope To Release Spending Bill Text Today;
• - Special Counsel Should Be Free To Finish Probe.
• - Received Assurances Firing Mueller Not Being Considered.
• US Commerce Sec. Ross: Important To Push For NAFTA Deal In The ‘Next Month Or So’.
• White House Dep. Press Secretary Shah: Confident Budget Will Pass By End-Week.
• - Budget Will Support Military & Infrastructure.
• US Pres Trump: We Will See What Happens On Iran Deal.
• Schumer: Hopes Congress Can Do Infrastructure Bill.
• US Pres Trump: Democrats Blocking ‘Catch And Release’ In Omnibus Bill.
• Senate Majority Leader McConnell: He Expects House Spending Bill To Be Released Today.
• Senate's McConnell: Expects House Spending Bill To Be Released Today.
• White House Dep. Press Sec Shah: Confident Budget Will Pass By End-Week.

EU politics

• EU's Tusk: EU's Response To US Tariffs Will Be `Responsible'.

Oil

• Oil Hits 3 Wk High As Glut Shrinks Faster Than Exp; WTI Just Shy Of $64/Bbl.
• OPEC: Vienna Meeting Looked At Potential Change To Inventory Target.
• OPEC: Vienna Meeting Looked At Potential Change To Inventory Target.
• OPEC: Said To Discuss Changing Measure Of Success For Cuts Deal.

G20

• IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde Calls for G20 Policies to Make Growth More Resilient and More Widely Shared.
• Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement today at the conclusion of the Group of 20 (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina: “As we conclude this G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting—the first under Argentina’s leadership—the global economic recovery has continued to strengthen, with growth momentum now involving more than 80 percent of total G20 GDP. This provides for very welcome jobs growth and room to undertake important reforms. As I have said before, we should fix the roof while the sun shines."
• G20 Statement: Fast Global Monetary Tightening Is A Risk To Global Growth.
• G20 Financial Leaders To Say They Will Refrain From Competitive Devaluations, Not Target FX For Competitive Reasons -Draft Communique.
• Reports G20 Has Yet To Agree On Crypto Assets In Final Draft.

Central Banks

• David M. Cote Steps Down From New York Fed Board Of Directors.
• US Tsy Sec. Mnuchin Discussed Financial Regulation, Stability With BoE’s Carney.
• BoE Exec Director For Markets Chris Salmon To Leave Role.