French elections: where does the support for the candidate come from? - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that to see whether Marine Le Pen could gain further support it is important to look at who really supports each candidate and where they could potentially make gains.

Key Quotes:

• Marine Le Pen 

Marine Le Pen receives about 26% of the support in the first round. When we look at the details of this support there are some clear patterns. She polls very well with most age groups except the over-65s. This could be the result of the impact a Frexit would have on the retirement assets of this cohort. She also receives most of her support from “bluecollar” workers and the less-educated part of the population. Moreover, she polls much better in France’s regions than in the Paris area. The profile of her support seems to be typical for a populist candidate. Like Donald Trump, she receives most of her support outside the main cities and from the less educated segment of the population. However, her appeal remains narrow. Most of her supporters voted for her in the 2012 elections and she is struggling to convince other voters to rally to her cause. As such, less than 20% of the voters who voted for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012 say they would vote for Ms Le Pen in 2017. These are likely to be the more nationalistic and souverainist segment of the Républicains. This is also confirmed in polls showing that about 29% of the voters who intend to vote for Mr Fillon in the first round would vote for Ms Le Pen in the second round. 

• Emmanuel Macron

Emmanuel Macron, on the other side, has the typical support profile for a candidate from the “elite” and has a support at the opposite end of the spectrum from Ms Le Pen. He receives most of his support from highly-educated, “white-collar” professionals and those located mainly in the Parisian area. He performs less well with “blue-collar” workers and with the less-educated segment of the electorate. However, while his support is stronger in the Paris area, there is little difference in support in the rest of France. Mr Macron benefits from slightly wider appeal than other candidates. 54% of those who voted for François Bayrou in 2012 support Mr Macron and almost half (46%) of those who voted for François Hollande in 2012 support Mr Macron. Mr Macron also manages to rally just over 20% of those who voted for Nicolas Sarkozy. 

• François Fillon 

The support for François Fillon is very polarised, more than for Ms Le Pen. Mr Fillon receives most of his support from the 65yr-and-over cohort, almost 40% of whom say they would vote for him. Linked to this, his main supporters are retired, while his support from working professionals is much lower. His supporters are also very educated. Regionally, Mr Fillon performs better in the Parisian area but is clearly struggling with rural voters. Mr Fillon also has a relatively narrow appeal, with most of his support coming from those who voted for Mr Sarkozy in 2012. He, nevertheless, is managing to rally just over 20% of the voters who supported Mr Bayrou in 2012.