French election round two: What you need to know about the run-off – HSBC

Analysts at HSBC explain that the French Presidential election provisional results are expected around 8pm CET on Sunday 7 May and Macron is the polls' clear favourite, but potential low turnout and unpredictable vote transfers mean nothing is certain.

Key Quotes

“Provisional results for round two from 8pm Paris time

Exit polls will be published from 8pm Paris time on Sunday 7 May, and they are likely to give a clear idea of the result.  The Interior Ministry will release estimates of turnout, which could be important for the outcome, at 12 noon and 5pm CET.”   

“Polls show a clear lead for Macron, but it ain't over till it’s over

• Opinion polls, that called the first round of the presidential election correctly, suggest a clear win for independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. Not one poll has predicted Marine Le Pen will be elected.  But polls gauge people’s preferences at a point in time and do not aim to predict how public opinion might change. 
• A big issue could be turnout, which was relatively low in round one at 76%.  Monday 8 May is bank holiday in France and turnout may consequently suffer.  Also, unusually high rates of abstention may occur as some voters dislike both candidates.  The Republican Party has not explicitly called for its voters to support Macron.  It has merely urged blocking the National Front.  Far-left nationalist, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has refused to endorse either candidate and said he will keep his own vote secret.  
• Recent polls have indicated that voters from the main eliminated candidates (Fillon, Mélenchon and Hamon) will support Macron more than Le Pen.  But these intentions could shift over the very last days of the campaign. In particular, a TV debate is scheduled for 3 May.” 

“Attention then turns to the June parliamentary elections

There is a stark difference between the candidates over some economic issues and how they see France's relationship with Europe and the world.  While Ms Le Pen is calling for the restoration of the French franc, the depreciation of this new currency and the implementation of trade tariffs, Mr Macron supports further European integration and an increased common budget. The extent to which the winner’s policies can be implemented will depend on the results of the June parliamentary elections.  A narrow win on May 7 might make it harder for Mr Macron to command a parliamentary majority.”