France: Budget setback puts fiscal targets at risk – Rabobank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Rabobank's latest market comments highlight a significant political setback for the French government, as the National Assembly failed to finalize the 2026 draft budget's first reading.

Despite the setback not being fatal, it clearly underlines the mounting difficulties in meeting fiscal objectives before the year-end, potentially leading to special procedures or contentious Article 49.3 use, although the latter has been dismissed due to associated political risks.

France's budget battle continues amid political risks

"The French government faced a significant setback this week as the National Assembly failed to complete the first reading of the 2026 draft budget before the 24 November deadline."

"This process makes it increasingly unlikely that Finance Minister Lecornu will achieve his goal of reducing the deficit to 4.7% in 2026 from 5.4% in 2025."

"Overall, Saturday’s setback wasn’t fatal, but it underscores the growing challenges in meeting fiscal targets before year-end."

(This story has been created with the assistance of AI.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD picks up pace around 1.3550

GBP/USD leaves behind part of the recent three-day retracement and hovers around the 1.3550 region on Monday. The Greenback’s fresh downward trend helps Cable recoup part of the recent ground lost while attention remains on the potential Fed rate path.

EUR/USD challenges 1.1600 amid a decent recovery

EUR/USD is partially trimming Friday’s severe pulback and is managing to flirt with the key 1.1600 barrier at the beginning of the week. The pair’s rebound follows a modest selling pressure on the US Dollar as investors assess the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September.

Gold slips back to $4,400, multi-day lows

Gold adds to Friday’s maked decline, briefly falling to the sub-$4,400 region per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal’s pullback comes despite the softer stance in the US Dollar and steady uncertainty in the Middle East, although rising yields keep bulls at bay for now.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP broadly consolidate amid renewed US-Iran strikes

Bitcoin remains resilient above $78,000 as investors anticipate a renewed push toward $80,000. Ethereum continues to demonstrate a constructive technical setup, holding above $2,400. Ripple is exhibiting early signs of recovery near $1.37.

Oil rallies on fresh persian gulf strikes

Energy prices are trading firmer this morning after the US carried out targeted strikes against Iran, drawing retaliatory strikes and reinforcing concerns about a prolonged stalemate in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices started the week stronger following the first military strikes between the US and Iran in a month. ICE Brent briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.