Four signals point to an escalation in the war in Ukraine – Danske Bank

It is more than two months since Russia started its large-scale attack on Ukraine. With the May 9 Victory Day approaching, economists at Danske Bank think Russia is likely to step up their offensive against Ukraine. 

Russian offensive is likely to expand and become nastier

“We think Russia’s clear underperformance in the conventional warfare increases the risk of them resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or chemical or biological weapons. Such action could prompt a more aggressive response by the West/NATO, which could lead to an escalation.”

“We think the latest developments could constitute a false flag operation by Russia, marking an escalation as Russia may be seeking a pretext to expand its military operations to Moldova in an effort to step up pressure in the southwest of Ukraine.”

“As another recent twist, Germany reversed its earlier decision not to send heavy weapons directly to Ukraine. While further military support to Ukraine and tighter sanctions are needed to halt the Russian offensive, and the latest action by Germany highlights the sense of urgency, we think they also raise the risk of an escalation in the conflict.”

“Russia announced on Tuesday April 26 that it will again hold joint drills with Belarus from April 26 to 29. The previous joint military drills were held in the period of February 10-20. Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24.”