Forex Today: What if the ECB…?

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The Greenback resumed its bearish sentiment and returned to the area of multi-month troughs on Wednesday, always against an unchanged tariff backdrop and Chief Powell’s neutral message from his remarks in Chicago.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 17:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to the low-99.00s accompanied by further decline in US yields across the curve. Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims are all expected.

EUR/USD regained upside traction, revisiting the boundaries of 1.1400 the figure after two daily pullbacks in a row. The European Central Bank (ECB) is seen reducing its interest rates by 25 basis points.

GBP/USD hit fresh tops just pips away from the key 1.3300 hurdle, losing some momentum afterwards. Next on tap on the UK calendar will be the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on April 23.

USD/JPY set aside Tuesday’s uptick and refocused on the downside, retreating to fresh seven-month lows in the sub-142.00 zone. Balance of Trade results will be published along with the weekly readings from Foreign Bond Investment.

Extra gains put AUD/USD at shouting distance from the 0.6400 region, hitting new multi-week tops. The critical labour market report takes centre stage Down Under.

Prices of WTI maintained their choppy performance on Wednesday, advancing modestly to around the $62.00 mark per barrel following headlines of fresh US sanctions against Chinese importers of Iranian oil.

Gold prices rose to an all-time peak past the $3,340 mark per troy ounce backed by unabated tariff-led inflows into the safe haven universe and the weaker Greenback. Silver prices rose further north of the $33.00 mark per ounce, or new two-week highs.

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

EUR/USD flat lines below 1.1900; divergent Fed-ECB expectations offer support

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1835-1.1830 region and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1875 area, remaining nearly unchanged for the day and staying within striking distance of an over one-week high, reached on Tuesday, amid mixed cues.

GBP/USD bullish outlook prevails above 1.3600, UK GDP data looms

The GBP/USD pair gains ground near 1.3635, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be closely watched later on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to grow 0.2% QoQ in Q4, versus 0.1% in Q1.

Gold down but not out as focus shifts to more US data

Gold is back in the red near $5,050 early Thursday, having faced strong offers at around the $5,100 mark once again. Buyers keep a close eye on the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and US-Iran geopolitical developments to regain control.

UK GDP set to post weak growth as markets rise bets on March rate cut

Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product. If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.