Forex Today: USD cheers Fed’s policy repricing, Gulf tensions rise, and Oil surges


  • US dollar index rises on falling odds of aggressive Fed rate cuts.
  • Oil surges on escalating Gulf tensions.
  • All eyes on trade and geopolitical developments.

Here is what you need to know to start your day on Monday, July 22nd, European session: 

- US dollar firmed up across the board on a likely smaller Fed rate cut, Gulf tensions stoked safe-haven demand, Treasury yields were soggy, Asian equities slipped.

- Japan's Abe won the upper house election but fell short of 2/3rd ‘Super Majority’ to needed to amend the nation's pacifist constitution, USD/JPY re-attempted 108.00.

- Trade: Some Chinese companies are seeking new purchases of US agricultural products, S. Korea-Japan trade concerns loom, China to impose an anti-dumping tax on stainless steel from Indonesia, EU, Japan, S. Korea.

- UK: All eyes on new UK PM election. FinMin Hammond to quit if Johnson becomes the PM. Cable hovered around 1.2500.

- Oil prices rallied on escalating UK-Iran tensions over 'hostile act' of UK tankers seizure by Iran. The UK weighing response to Iran Gulf crisis with few good options.

- Gold was lifted by Gulf tensions, but upside capped by dollar gains.

- Cryptocurrencies consolidated in tight ranges. Bitcoin unmotivated below 11k.

Key events to watch

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Sunday, Jul 21
24h
 
 
Monday, Jul 22
04:30
2
 
0
04:30
2.4%
 
1.8%
06:00
 
 
-0.7%
06:00
 
 
-5
08:30
 
2.7%
2.8%
09:00
 
 
0.4%
09:00
 
 
3.3%
10:00
 
 
10:00
 
 
-15
n/a
 
 
8.7%
10:00
 
 
2.9%
12:00
 
10.0%
9.9%
12:30
 
 
-0.05
12:30
 
0.2%
1.7%
15:00
 
 
15:30
 
 
2.115%
15:30
 
 
2.01%
22:30
 
 
Tuesday, Jul 23
05:00
 
 
6.6%
05:00
 
0.7
0.9
06:00
 
 
5.8
07:00
 
 
57.6
08:00
 
5.3%
5.4%
08:00
 
 
08:30
 
 
12:00
 
0.06%
0.06%
12:00
 
0.9%
0.9%
12:15
 
 
12:55
 
 
4.7%
12:55
 
 
1%
13:00
 
0.3%
0.4%
14:00
 
5.35M
5.34M
14:00
 
1.2%
2.5%
14:00
 
5
3
14:00
 
-7.2
-7.2
17:00
 
 
1.695%
20:30
 
 
-1.401M
22:45
 
 
$5.81B
22:45
 
 
$-5.49B
22:45
 
 
$5.54B
22:45
 
 
$264M
Wednesday, Jul 24
00:30
 
49.7
49.3
05:00
 
 
0.9%
05:00
 
 
-0.7%
05:00
 
 
-0.1%
05:00
 
95.2
95.2
05:00
 
103.2
103.2
06:45
 
104
102
07:15
 
50.7
51.9
07:15
 
51.5
52.9
07:15
 
51.2
52.7
07:30
 
52.5
52.6
07:30
 
55.5
55.8
07:30
 
45.1
45.0
08:00
 
4.4%
4.5%
08:00
 
0.3%
0.3%
08:00
 
 
4.7%
08:00
 
4.7%
4.8%
08:00
 
52.0
52.2
08:00
 
47.7
47.6
08:00
 
53.3
53.6
08:30
 
 
42.384K
11:00
 
 
-1.1%
13:00
 
0.08%
0.01%
13:00
 
0.13%
0.16%
13:00
 
 
-4.9
13:45
 
50.4
50.6
13:45
 
51.0
51.5
13:45
 
 
51.5
14:00
 
0.650M
0.626M
14:00
 
 
-7.8%
14:30
 
 
-3.116M
17:00
 
 
1.791%
23:00
 
0.4%
-0.4%
23:00
 
2.9%
1.7%
23:50
 
0.0%
0.8%
23:50
 
 
¥950B
23:50
 
 
¥-93.1B
Thursday, Jul 25
03:05
 
 
06:00
 
 
3.2%
07:00
 
 
102.5
07:00
 
 
77.1%
07:00
 
14.38%
14.70%
07:00
 
 
4.5%
07:00
 
 
93.8
07:30
 
6.5%
6.8%
07:30
 
 
0%
07:30
 
 
3.5%
08:00
 
96.7
97.4
08:00
 
98.7
100.8
08:00
 
95.2
94.2
08:00
 
 
€3.11B
09:30
 
5.8%
6.4%
09:30
 
0.4%
0.5%
10:00
 
 
-42%
11:00
 
22%
24%
11:45
 
0%
0%
11:45
 
-0.4%
-0.4%
12:30
 
 
1.686M
12:30
 
 
216K
12:30
 
 
218.75K
12:30
 
 
0.4%
12:30
 
 
$-75.05B Revised from $-74.55B
12:30
 
0.1%
0.5% Revised from 0.4%
12:30
 
0.5%
-1.3%
12:30
 
 
-0.5% Revised from -0.6%
12:30
 
0.1%
0.4% Revised from 0.3%
12:30
 
 
13:00
 
1.4%
1.6%
13:00
 
 
0.7%
13:00
 
 
$519.7B
13:30
 
 
$0.662B
14:30
 
 
62B
15:00
 
 
-3
15:30
 
 
2.09%
17:00
 
 
1.889%
19:00
 
$850M
$1,373M
21:00
 
 
97.5
23:30
 
1.1%
1.1%
23:30
 
0.8%
0.9%
23:30
 
0.8%
0.8%
Friday, Jul 26
05:00
 
-2.2%
-2.4%
05:00
 
-0.8%
-0.7%
06:00
 
 
-0.1%
06:00
 
 
-0.2%
06:45
 
-0.2%
-0.4%
06:45
 
103
101
07:30
 
 
-0.5%
07:30
 
 
-2%
07:30
 
 
8.3B
08:00
 
103.4
100.8
08:00
 
111.2
109.6
10:00
 
 
1.1%
10:00
 
 
-2.4%
10:30
 
7.5%
7.5%
11:30
 
 
$428.8B
12:30
 
1.3%
0.6%
12:30
 
1.9%
3.1%
12:30
 
0.6%
0.5%
12:30
 
1.2%
1.2%
12:30
 
 
€-337B
13:00
 
$-0.746B
$0.984B
13:00
 
$-1.030B
$1.031B
17:00
 
 
779
19:30
 
 
$38.4K
19:30
 
 
423.8K
19:30
 
 
$245.5K
19:30
 
 
£-76.4K
19:30
 
 
¥-11.4K
19:30
 
 
€-31.4K
19:30
 
 
$-52.6K
20:00
 
 
4.25%

 

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