Forex Today: USD cheers Fed’s policy repricing, Gulf tensions rise, and Oil surges

US dollar index rises on falling odds of aggressive Fed rate cuts.
Oil surges on escalating Gulf tensions.
All eyes on trade and geopolitical developments.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Here is what you need to know to start your day on Monday, July 22nd, European session:

- US dollar firmed up across the board on a likely smaller Fed rate cut, Gulf tensions stoked safe-haven demand, Treasury yields were soggy, Asian equities slipped.

- Japan's Abe won the upper house election but fell short of 2/3^rd ‘Super Majority’ to needed to amend the nation's pacifist constitution, USD/JPY re-attempted 108.00.

- Trade: Some Chinese companies are seeking new purchases of US agricultural products, S. Korea-Japan trade concerns loom, China to impose an anti-dumping tax on stainless steel from Indonesia, EU, Japan, S. Korea.

- UK: All eyes on new UK PM election. FinMin Hammond to quit if Johnson becomes the PM. Cable hovered around 1.2500.

- Oil prices rallied on escalating UK-Iran tensions over 'hostile act' of UK tankers seizure by Iran. The UK weighing response to Iran Gulf crisis with few good options.

- Gold was lifted by Gulf tensions, but upside capped by dollar gains.

- Cryptocurrencies consolidated in tight ranges. Bitcoin unmotivated below 11k.

Key events to watch

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Sunday, Jul 21
24h	EUR National holiday
Monday, Jul 22
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj	2		0
04:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume	2.4%		1.8%
06:00	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.7%
06:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			-5
08:30	HKD Consumer Price Index		2.7%	2.8%
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			3.3%
10:00	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
10:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)			-15
n/a	ILS M1 Money Supply (MoM)			8.7%
10:00	ILS Industrial Production (MoM)			2.9%
12:00	PLN M3 Money Supply (YoY)		10.0%	9.9%
12:30	USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index			-0.05
12:30	CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)		0.2%	1.7%
15:00	JPY BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			2.115%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			2.01%
22:30	AUD RBA's Kent speech
Tuesday, Jul 23
05:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			6.6%
05:00	SGD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.7	0.9
06:00	DKK Consumer Confidence			5.8
07:00	TRY Consumer Confidence			57.6
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)		5.3%	5.4%
08:00	EUR ECB Bank Lending Survey
08:30	GBP FPC Meeting Minutes
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation		0.06%	0.06%
12:00	HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision		0.9%	0.9%
12:15	GBP BoE's Haldane speech
12:55	USD Redbook Index (YoY)			4.7%
12:55	USD Redbook Index (MoM)			1%
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)		5.35M	5.34M
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)		1.2%	2.5%
14:00	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index		5	3
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-7.2	-7.2
17:00	USD 2-Year Note Auction			1.695%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-1.401M
22:45	NZD Exports			$5.81B
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (YoY)			$-5.49B
22:45	NZD Imports			$5.54B
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (MoM)			$264M
Wednesday, Jul 24
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI		49.7	49.3
05:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			0.9%
05:00	EUR Import Prices (YoY)			-0.7%
05:00	EUR Export Prices (YoY)			-0.1%
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index		95.2	95.2
05:00	JPY Coincident Index		103.2	103.2
06:45	EUR Business Climate		104	102
07:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		50.7	51.9
07:15	EUR Markit Services PMI		51.5	52.9
07:15	EUR Markit PMI Composite		51.2	52.7
07:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite		52.5	52.6
07:30	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.5	55.8
07:30	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		45.1	45.0
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		4.4%	4.5%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)			4.7%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)		4.7%	4.8%
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		52.0	52.2
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		47.7	47.6
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		53.3	53.6
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals			42.384K
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-1.1%
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Inflation		0.08%	0.01%
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Core Inflation		0.13%	0.16%
13:00	EUR Leading Indicator			-4.9
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		50.4	50.6
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI		51.0	51.5
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			51.5
14:00	USD New Home Sales (MoM)		0.650M	0.626M
14:00	USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)			-7.8%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change			-3.116M
17:00	USD 5-Year Note Auction			1.791%
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ)		0.4%	-0.4%
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY)		2.9%	1.7%
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)		0.0%	0.8%
23:50	JPY Foreign Bond Investment			¥950B
23:50	JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks			¥-93.1B
Thursday, Jul 25
03:05	AUD RBA's Governor Lowe speech
06:00	NOK Labour Force Survey			3.2%
07:00	TRY Manufacturing Confidence			102.5
07:00	TRY Capacity Utilization			77.1%
07:00	EUR Unemployment Survey		14.38%	14.70%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			4.5%
07:00	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)			93.8
07:30	SEK Unemployment Rate		6.5%	6.8%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (MoM)			0%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.5%
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate		96.7	97.4
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment		98.7	100.8
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations		95.2	94.2
08:00	EUR Trade Balance non-EU			€3.11B
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)		5.8%	6.4%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.5%
10:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			-42%
11:00	TRY CBRT Interest Rate Decision		22%	24%
11:45	EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision		0%	0%
11:45	EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision		-0.4%	-0.4%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.686M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			216K
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average			218.75K
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories			0.4%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance			$-75.05B Revised from $-74.55B
12:30	USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft		0.1%	0.5% Revised from 0.4%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders		0.5%	-1.3%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense			-0.5% Revised from -0.6%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation		0.1%	0.4% Revised from 0.3%
12:30	EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (YoY)		1.4%	1.6%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (MoM)			0.7%
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$519.7B
13:30	BRL Current Account			$0.662B
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change			62B
15:00	USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity			-3
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			2.09%
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			1.889%
19:00	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)		$850M	$1,373M
21:00	KRW Consumer Sentiment Index			97.5
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.1%	1.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		0.8%	0.9%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)		0.8%	0.8%
Friday, Jul 26
05:00	SGD Industrial Production (YoY)		-2.2%	-2.4%
05:00	SGD Industrial Production (MoM)		-0.8%	-0.7%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)			-0.2%
06:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.4%
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence		103	101
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.5%
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (MoM)			-2%
07:30	SEK Trade Balance (MoM)			8.3B
08:00	EUR Business Confidence		103.4	100.8
08:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		111.2	109.6
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			1.1%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-2.4%
10:30	RUB Interest rate decision		7.5%	7.5%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$428.8B
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index		1.3%	0.6%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized		1.9%	3.1%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)		0.6%	0.5%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)		1.2%	1.2%
12:30	EUR Current Account Balance EUR			€-337B
13:00	MXN Trade Balance s/a, $		$-0.746B	$0.984B
13:00	MXN Trade Balance, $		$-1.030B	$1.031B
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			779
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions			$38.4K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions			423.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions			$245.5K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions			£-76.4K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC Net Positions			¥-11.4K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions			€-31.4K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions			$-52.6K
20:00	COP Interest rate			4.25%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD deflates to fresh lows, targets 1.1600

The selling pressure on EUR/USD now gathers extra pace, prompting the pair to hit fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1625-1.1620 band on Friday. The continuation of the downward bias comes in response to further gains in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess the mixed release of US Nonfarm Payrolls in December.

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.

Gold flirts with yearly tops around $4,500

Gold keeps its positive bias on Friday, adding to Thursday’s advance and challenging yearly highs in the $4,500 region per troy ounce. The risk-off sentiment favours the yellow metal despite the firmer tone in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields.