- Forex today made way for a stronger dollar within a risk-on environment, supported by a better than expected US non-farm payrolls.
The DXY climbed from 97.20 to a high of 97.47 on Friday, just shy of the high for the week at 97.52 following US non-farm payrolls that came in better than expected at 196k (up from 33k in the month prior) against market expectations of 177k.
"Average earnings growth fell back to 3.2% y/y (from 3.4% in the month prior), unemployment was steady at 3.8% and the participation rate eased back a touch to 63%. Jobs growth is still good, but the participation rate shows that recent strength in the economy and tax changes have not tempted workers back into the labour force. The 3-month average of non-farm payrolls is 180k, down a touch from 186k in February," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.
At the same time, while Sino/US talks over trade seem to be on track towards a deal being finalised by the of this month, Trump was also talking up QE. The President of the US called for the Fed to cut rates and resume quantitative easing as he continues to try and politicise the Fed.
The easy money notion was also supportive of US stocks closing in the green in pursuit of late 2018 highs with the S&P 500 higher by 0.5% to end near 2,893, the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.6% to end around 7,939 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to add around 40 points, or more than 0.1%, to finish around 26,425. The US 10-yr note was 2bps lower at 2.495%, however, they were touching a two-week high before retreating - Futures implied that traders still expect rate cuts by early 2020.
Currency action
EURUSD was up 36 pips while the yen was higher by 28 pips. GBP/USD dropped below the 1.30 handle as Brexit angst weighs in again, losing over 130 pips on the day. AUD/USD also dropped hard from 0.7130 to a low in the 0.7090s.
Key notes from US session:
US: Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 190,000 in March – Danske Bank
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