Forex Today: US Dollar struggles to extend rebound ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 3:
The trading action in financial markets turns subdued early Thursday as investors gear up for the key June employment report from the US, which will feature Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls and wage inflation figures. The US economic calendar will also offer weekly Jobless Claims data and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report for June.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.58% | 0.48% | -0.37% | -0.71% | -0.62% | -0.35% | -1.00% | |
| EUR | 0.58% | 1.03% | 0.22% | -0.14% | -0.06% | 0.24% | -0.43% | |
| GBP | -0.48% | -1.03% | -1.00% | -1.17% | -1.08% | -0.80% | -1.45% | |
| JPY | 0.37% | -0.22% | 1.00% | -0.34% | -0.19% | 0.07% | -0.57% | |
| CAD | 0.71% | 0.14% | 1.17% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.37% | -0.28% | |
| AUD | 0.62% | 0.06% | 1.08% | 0.19% | -0.05% | 0.28% | -0.37% | |
| NZD | 0.35% | -0.24% | 0.80% | -0.07% | -0.37% | -0.28% | -0.65% | |
| CHF | 1.00% | 0.43% | 1.45% | 0.57% | 0.28% | 0.37% | 0.65% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
After starting the day on a bullish note on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) lost its recovery momentum in the American session to end the day with small gains. The data published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed that employment in the private sector declined by 33,000 in June. This reading followed the 29,000 increase recorded in April and missed the market expectation of +95,000 by a wide margin. Financial markets in the US will close early on Thursday and remain closed on Friday in observance of the July 4 holiday. The USD Index stays relatively quiet in the European morning and moves up and down in a tight range below 97.00. Meanwhile, House Republicans are yet to approve US President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending bill.
EUR/USD moves up and down in a tight range at around 1.1800 after posting marginal losses on Wednesday.
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3650 after suffering large losses on Wednesday. UK government bonds and Pound Sterling came under heavy selling pressure during the European session on Wednesday after British finance minister Rachel Reeves seemed visibly upset during PMQs as Prime Minister Keir Starmer refused to guarantee that she would remain in her position until the next election. Later in the day, Starmer said that Reeves would remain chancellor "for a very long time to come," easing concerns over a political turmoil.
USD/JPY edges slightly higher early Thursday but stays below 144.00. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that Japan is close to achieving BoJ's price target but hasn't fully achieved it yet, so it needs to maintain an accommodative monetary policy.
Gold extended its recovery into a third consecutive day on Wednesday. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase above $3,350 in the European morning on Thursday.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
