Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes ahead of housing data, Powell's second day of testimony
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, June 25:
Financial markets remain relatively quiet early Wednesday following the volatile action seen on Tuesday. In the second half of the day, New Home Sales data for May will be featured in the US economic calendar. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will speak before the Senate Banking Committee in the second day of his testimony.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.20% | -1.55% | -0.97% | -0.21% | -1.05% | -1.26% | -1.50% | |
| EUR | 1.20% | -0.38% | 0.30% | 1.01% | 0.11% | -0.05% | -0.34% | |
| GBP | 1.55% | 0.38% | 0.69% | 1.39% | 0.49% | 0.33% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.97% | -0.30% | -0.69% | 0.75% | -0.11% | -0.23% | -0.62% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | -1.01% | -1.39% | -0.75% | -0.80% | -1.05% | -1.35% | |
| AUD | 1.05% | -0.11% | -0.49% | 0.11% | 0.80% | -0.18% | -0.45% | |
| NZD | 1.26% | 0.05% | -0.33% | 0.23% | 1.05% | 0.18% | -0.29% | |
| CHF | 1.50% | 0.34% | -0.03% | 0.62% | 1.35% | 0.45% | 0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
News of Iran and Israel accepting a ceasefire triggered a risk rally on Tuesday and caused the US Dollar (USD) to weaken. During the American trading hours, comments from Chairman Powell helped the USD limit its losses. Powell reiterated that they are not in a rush to cut the policy rate, adding that they need more time to confirm that inflation pressures caused by tariffs will remain contained. After ending the day marginally lower, the USD Index fluctuates in a tight channel at around 98.00 in the European morning on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade little changed after Wall Street's main indexes capitalized on risk flows to post strong gains on Tuesday.
EUR/USD rose about only 0.3% on Tuesday as it lost its bullish momentum in the second half of the day. The pair stays in a consolidation phase and moves sideways at around 1.1600 early Wednesday.
GBP/USD extended its rally and touched its highest level in over three years near 1.3650 on Tuesday. Following a short-lasting technical correction, the pair holds steady above 1.3600 in the European morning on Wednesday. While testifying before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey noted that they are starting to see a softening in the labor market.
USD/JPY dropped to 144.50 and lost nearly 1% on Tuesday. The pair stages a rebound on Wednesday and trades above 145.00.
Gold dropped below $3,300 for the first time in two weeks on Tuesday, pressured by easing geopolitical tensions. XAU/USD corrects higher on Wednesday and trades at around $3,330.
USD/CAD fell below 1.3700 on Tuesday but managed to recover from daily lows to close virtually unchanged. The pair moves sideways near 1.3730 in the European session. Inflation in Canada, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remained unchanged at 1.7% on a yearly basis in May, Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
