Forex Today: US Dollar recovers modestly ahead of employment data
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 2:
The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its rivals early Wednesday, with the USD Index recovering toward 97.00 after closing the previous seven consecutive trading days in negative territory. Later in the day, the private sector employment report for June, published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), will be featured in the US economic calendar.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.35% | 0.36% | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.26% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | 0.09% | 0.10% | -0.24% | -0.03% | 0.13% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.35% | -0.09% | 0.04% | -0.35% | -0.17% | 0.02% | -0.16% | |
| JPY | -0.36% | -0.10% | -0.04% | -0.34% | -0.19% | -0.07% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.24% | 0.35% | 0.34% | 0.18% | 0.33% | 0.17% | |
| AUD | -0.19% | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.19% | -0.18% | 0.22% | 0.00% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | -0.13% | -0.02% | 0.07% | -0.33% | -0.22% | -0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.04% | 0.16% | 0.19% | -0.17% | -0.00% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On Tuesday, the Senate passed United States (US) President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," which includes a permanent extension to the 2017 tax cuts, after Vice President JD Vance made the rare tie-breaking vote. The bill now moves to the House before it's finally brought back to the White House by July 4. In the European morning on Wednesday, US stock index futures trade modestly higher, reflecting an upbeat market mood.
While speaking at a policy panel at the European Central Bank's (ECB) Forum on Central Banking on Tuesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated they need to be patient with regard to policy-easing, for as long as the economy remains solid.
EUR/USD reached a fresh multi-year high at 1.1830 on Tuesday but erased a portion of its daily gains to close marginally higher. Early Wednesday, the pair stays on the back foot and trades below 1.1800. The data from the Eurozone showed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 6.3% in May from 6.2% in April.
GBP/USD stays in negative territory at around 1.3700 in the European session on Wednesday after posting small gains on Tuesday. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey repeated on Tuesday that they see signs of softening in the economy and the labour market.
USD/JPY gains traction and tests 144.00 after registering losses on Monday and Tuesday. US President Trump said late Tuesday that he is mulling over the possibility of adding additional tariffs on Japan and not extending the self-imposed July 9 deadline on the currently-suspended reciprocal tariffs.
Gold preserved its bullish momentum and gained more than 1% on Tuesday. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase at fluctuates below $3,350.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
