Here is what you need to know on Monday, August 17:
The US dollar extended last week’s decline into a fresh week this Monday, in the face of the US fiscal impasse, likely improvement in the US-China relations, mixed US macro news and retreat in the US Treasury yields.
The stalemate on the additional US fiscal stimulus lingers, as Congress was adjourned for month-long vacation without action on the US unemployment crisis.
Meanwhile, China boosting the US crude oil imports combined with US President Donald Trump having offered Chinese firm ByteDance 90 days to offload its TikTok app from the previous 45 days set out in the executive order alleviated concerns over the US-China diplomatic ties. Markets showed little reaction to the indefinite postponement of the US-China trade deal review.
The dollar bulls were unimpressed by the upbeat US inflation, jobless claims and consumer sentiment data, as the key retail sales data lagged, re-enforcing worries over the economic recovery. The retreat in the US Treasury yields following large bond auction last week also weighed on the greenback.
The market mood in Asia was mixed, with the Japanese stocks suffering due to a record GDP contraction in the April-June quarter while the Chinese stocks jumped on the central bank’s medium-term liquidity injection. The gains in the US stock futures, however, pointed to a positive Wall Street open.
Across the fx board, USD/JPY consolidated the bounce to near 106.70 region after the Japanese GDP disappointment. AUD/USD remained capped below 0.7200 amid mixed sentiment while NZD/USD was pressured below 0.6550 amid growing coronavirus concerns and rising odds of RBNZ negative interest rates. NZ PM Ardern postponed the general election date by another four weeks from September 19 to October 17.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD traded on the back foot around 1.3252, as the Loonie benefited from a 1% rally in oil prices. WTI advanced to $42.50 on news that China plans to ship large volumes of US crude oil this month.
EUR/USD held higher ground above 1.1850 on dollar weakness and German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz’s proposal of extending EUR10 billion job subsidy by up to 24 months.
GBP/USD pared gains to drop back below 1.3100 amid EU warnings of a delayed market access post-Brexit and ahead of the key Brexit negotiations, which are set to resume on August 18.
Gold remained on the defensive below $1950 after recording the biggest weekly loss since March.
Cryptocurrencies are holding on to the recent upside, with Bitcoin trading around $11,800.
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