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Forex Today: Risk-off dominates Asia FX, PMIs in focus

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today was driven by risk-off trades during the Asian session this Monday, as the US political uncertainty combined with Brexit jitters continue to dent investors’ sentiment towards risk assets. Hence, the safe-haven Yen was broadly boosted, while the Kiwi suffered the most amid negative Asian equities and oil prices.

Among other majors, the GBP/USD pair stalled its recovery below 10-DMA at 1.3025 amid risk-aversion and latest downward revision to the UK growth forecasts by the IMF. EUR/USD clocked fresh two-year tops and remains on track to conquer 1.17 handle.

Main topics in Asia

Brexit effect: Household financial conditions deteriorate fastest in 3 years

An IHS Markit survey results released today showed the British households’ financial conditions deteriorated at the fastest rate in three years in July as inflation continues to rise faster than wages.

China Q3 GDP may grow 6.8% y/y - CASS

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) exepcts the economt to expand 6.8% y/y/ in the third quarter.

President Trump to deliver statement on health care reform today

White House says President Trump will deliver a statement on health care at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Japan manufacturing PMI hits eight-month low

On Monday, a preliminary private survey published by Markit/Nikkei showed that the Japanese manufacturing sector activity grew at the slowest pace in eight months in July.

IMF keeps global growth forecasts unchanged at 3.5% for 2017

In its latest World Economic Outlook report for 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its global growth forecast at 3.5%.

Key Focus ahead

Stepping into a new week, the EUR calendar remains eventful, with a raft of services and manufacturing PMI reports lined up for release from the Euro area economies, followed by the release of the German Bundesbank (Buba) monthly report. In the NA session, the Canadian wholesale sales data will be published, while from the US docket, the manufacturing and services PMIs will be reported by Markit ahead of the existing home sales release.

EUR/USD clocks fresh 2-year high, all eyes on German & EZ PMIs

The EUR/USD rose to a fresh two-year high of 1.1284 in Asia as the political uncertainty in the US continued to weigh over the greenback.

The week ahead Euro area - Nomura

The analysts at Nomura offered their European outlook for the week ahead ...

USA events: Fed and GDP eyed- Nomura

Nomura's analysts preview for the USA schedule this week ...

No policy changes expected at the July FOMC meeting – Goldman Sachs

Economists at Goldman Sachs published a client note, citing their expectations on the FOMC policy decision due on the cards this Wednesday.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Jul 24
07:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite	56.3	56.4
07:30	EUR Markit Services PMI	54.3	54.0
07:30	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI	59.2	59.6
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI	57.2	57.4
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI	55.5	55.4
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite	56.2	56.3
n/a	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI	52.1	52.0
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite		53.9
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI	54.3	54.2
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)	5.57M	5.62M
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)	-1.2%	1.1%
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction		1.05%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction		1.105%
Tuesday, Jul 25
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate	114.9	115.1
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment	123.9	124.1
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations	106.6	106.8
10:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)		16
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)		2%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)		-1.3%
13:00	USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)	5.8%	5.7%
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)		0.7%
14:00	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index		7
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction		0.955%
17:00	USD 2-Year Note Auction		1.348%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD keeps the rangebound trade near 1.1850

EUR/USD is still under pressure, drifting back towards the 1.1850 area as Monday’s session draws to a close. The modest decline in spot comes as the US Dollar picks up a bit of support, while thin liquidity and muted volatility, thanks to the US market holiday, are exaggerating price swings and keeping trading conditions choppy.

GBP/USD flirts with daily lows near 1.3630

GBP/USD has quickly given back Friday’s solid gains, turning lower at the start of the week and drifting back towards the 1.3630 area. The focus now shifts squarely to Tuesday’s UK labour market report, which is likely to keep the quid firmly in the spotlight and could set the tone for Cable’s next move.

Gold battle around $5,000 continues

Gold is giving back part of Friday’s sharp rebound, deflating below the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce as the new week gets underway. Modest gains in the US Dollar are keeping the metal in check, while thin trading conditions, due to the Presidents Day holiday in the US, are adding to the choppy and hesitant tone across markets.

AI Crypto Update: Bittensor eyes breakout as AI tokens falter

The artificial intelligence (AI) cryptocurrency segment is witnessing heightened volatility, with top tokens such as Near Protocol (NEAR) struggling to gain traction amid the persistent decline in January and February.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

XRP steadies in narrow range as fund inflows, futures interest rise

Ripple is trading in a narrow range between $1.45 (immediate support) and $1.50 (resistance) at the time of writing on Monday. The remittance token extended its recovery last week, peaking at $1.67 on Sunday from the weekly open at $1.43.