|

Forex Today: Powell and the US NFP will be in the limelight

The Greenback tumbled to multi-month lows as market participants digested President Trump’s newly announced reciprocal tariffs, all against a backdrop of sharp losses in global stock markets and escalating concerns over a global trade war.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 4:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) almost fully faded the October-January rally, retreating to multi-month troughs in the low 101.00s amid an equally pronounced drop in US yields across the curve. The release of the Nonfarm Payrolls will be the salient event, followed by the Unemployment Rate and speeches by Chair Powell, Waller, and Barr.

EUR/USD advanced markedly and revisited the 1.1150 region for the first time since early October. Germany’s Factory Orders are due along with the HCOB Construction PMI in Germany and the EMU, all ahead of the speech by the ECB’s De Guindos.

GBP/USD briefly surpassed the 1.3200 barrier to hit new six-month peaks following the important decline in the Greenback. The final S&P Global Construction PMI will be published.

USD/JPY extended its bearish move to six-month troughs near the 145.00 support on the back of increased safe haven demand post-Trump’s tariffs. The Household Spending figures are due in the Japanese docket.

AUD/USD rose for the third consecutive day, this time approaching the key resistance area around the 0.6400 barrier. Next on tap in Oz will be the Consumer Confidence gauge tracked by Westpac, due on April 8.

WTI prices collapsed to the area of yearly lows in the sub-$66.00 region per barrel amid the generalised sour sentiment as traders adjusted to Trump’s tariffs.

In a volatile day, Gold prices settled above the $3,100 mark per troy ounce, down mildly for the day despite hitting an all-time peak near $3,170 early in the session. Silver prices tumbled heavily to four-week troughs below the $32.00 mark per ounce.

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200 after hot Chinese CPI data

AUD/USD is extending its consolidative price action above 0.7200 during the Asian session on Wednesday, uninspired by hot Chinese CPI and PPI data. Meanwhile, rising RBA rate-hike bets act as a tailwind for the Aussie amid Yen-inspired US Dollar weakness. Traders await the release of US inflation figures later in the week for fresh impetus.

USD/JPY stays weak near 153.50 amid aggressive BoJ hike bets



USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers in the Asian session on Wednesday as the strong Reuters Tankan business survey adds to the case for continued BoJ policy normalisation and boosts the Japanese Yen. This, along with a broadly weaker US Dollar, keeps the pair close to a nearly seven-month low set on Tuesday.

Gold rebounds from $4,350; will it last?

Gold is rebounding from a one-week low near $4,350 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar, however, struggles to lure buyers amid a rallying Yen, supporting the commodity as traders await the key US inflation data for a fresh impetus. However, the rebound could be short-lived amid expectations of a Fed rate hike this month.

Inflation risks keep interest rates high
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and resulting disruptions in the energy markets are driving up inflation expectations and keeping upward pressure on bond yields high. In the Eurozone, heightened inflation risks and robust growth in economic demand point to another ECB rate hike to 2.5% in September.
Gold and stocks: What eight midterm elections did
I went back through every midterm election since 1994 and asked one question of each: when did the stock market make its low for the year, before the vote or after it? In seven of the eight cycles, the low came before the election. In six of the eight, it came between mid-June and mid-October, which is to say in the exact window that the "they won't let it fall" argument says is protected.
Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.