Forex Today: Markets remain on edge as Middle East chaos spreads
Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 30:
Markets cling to a cautious stance early Monday as investors assess the latest developments surrounding the Middle East conflict. Later in the European session, regional and national Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany will be watched closely. In the second half of the day, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.28% | 0.44% | 0.24% | 1.28% | 2.01% | 1.42% | 1.39% | |
| EUR | -0.28% | 0.16% | -0.04% | 1.00% | 1.71% | 1.14% | 1.11% | |
| GBP | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.23% | 0.84% | 1.57% | 0.98% | 0.88% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | 0.04% | 0.23% | 1.01% | 1.76% | 1.15% | 1.05% | |
| CAD | -1.28% | -1.00% | -0.84% | -1.01% | 0.74% | 0.14% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -2.01% | -1.71% | -1.57% | -1.76% | -0.74% | -0.57% | -0.68% | |
| NZD | -1.42% | -1.14% | -0.98% | -1.15% | -0.14% | 0.57% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | -1.39% | -1.11% | -0.88% | -1.05% | -0.10% | 0.68% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Iran-backed militant group in Yemen, Houthis, entered the month-old war in the Middle East on Saturday, claiming two missile launches at Israel. Meanwhile, the Israeli military continued carrying out extensive strikes over the weekend, on what it called targets belonging to the Iranian regime across Tehran. Additionally, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that they will be expanding operations in southern Lebanon to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets.
In an interview with the Financial Times, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they could "take the oil in Iran" and noted that discussions with Tehran were going "extremely well." Trump added that a deal could be made fairly quickly.
The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades marginally higher on the day, above $99, and US stock index cling to small gains after Wall Street's main indexes suffered heavy losses on Friday. After rising nearly 0.7% in the previous week, the US Dollar (USD) Index stays in a consolidation phase above 100.00 in the European morning on Monday.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said during Asian trading hours on Monday that changes in the foreign exchange (FX) market are key factors that have a huge impact on Japan's economy, and prices. He added that the BoJ will guide the policy by assessing how FX moves could affect the likelihood of achieving the growth, price forecasts as well as risks. After climbing to the 160.50 region earlier in the day, USD/JPY reversed its direction and was last seen trading at around 159.70, losing 0.4% on the day. In the Asian session on Tuesday, Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be featured in the Japanese economic calendar.
EUR/USD fell below 1.1500 at the weekly opening but managed to stage a rebound. Later in the session, the European Commission will publish business and consumer sentiment data for March.
After rising more than 2.5% on Friday, Gold holds its ground early Monday and trades in positive territory above $4,500.
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold and trades near 1.3250 in the European morning after closing the previous four trading days in negative territory.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
