Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls await acceptance above $66.00, 100-day EMA breakout

Silver attracts some follow-through buying on Monday amid the prevailing USD selling bias.
The technical setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further appreciating move.
A move beyond the 100-day EMA is needed to validate the near-term constructive outlook.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Silver (XAG/USD) is seen building on Friday's bounce from mid-$63.00s and gaining some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The white metal, however, continues with its struggle to break above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and currently trades above mid-$65.00s, up around 1.50% for the day.

The US Dollar (USD) selling bias remains unabated as traders continue to scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets amid signs of cooling US inflation and weak consumer spending. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor underpinning demand for USD-denominated commodities, including the XAG/USD, and backs the case for further gains.

From a broader technical perspective, the XAG/USD has been oscillating in a familiar range over the past week or so. This could be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a goodish recovery from the year-to-date low, touched in July, and the recent breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July downfall.

Moreover, momentum indicators stay constructive as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 61, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram holds in positive territory. This suggests that upside attempts could persist even as the XAG/USD struggles to make it through the 100-day EMA pivotal resistance near the $66.33 area.

The said barrier is followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level at $67.93. A sustained move above the said levels would be needed to pave the way for further gains toward the mid-range Fibonacci hurdle at $72.02. On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 23.6% Fibo. near $62.87, where a break would expose the lower anchor of the current swing near $54.70.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

XAG/USD daily chart

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD keeps range near 0.6950 after Australian trade data

AUD/USD consolidates near a two-month low, trading around mid-0.6900s in the Asian session on Thursday amid a bullish US Dollar. The US PCE data tempered October Fed hike bets, though oil-driven inflation fears remain supportive of elevated US bond yields. Meanwhile, Australia's trade surplus shrank sharply in August to AUD495M, having limited impact on the Aussie Dollar and the pair.

USD/JPY sits at weekly top above 158.00 as bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY is sitting at the top end of its weekly range above 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Despite the softer US PCE data, oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. Moreover, the US-Iran standoff benefits the safe-haven US Dollar and supports the pair. Broad US Dollar strength counters hawkish BoJ expectations and Japanese intervention risks.

Gold sticks to modest gains; remains below $4,200 as bullish USD limits upside

Gold attracts some dip-buyers near the $4,139 region during the Asian session, stalling the previous day's pullback from the $4,220 area, touched in reaction to softer-than-expected US inflation data. However, elevated US bond yields remain supportive of the prevailing strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar and should keep a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Hyperliquid pares gains as ETF outflows cap tentative bullish recovery

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is down 2% at press time on Thursday, trimming its 5% gains from the previous day. Institutional demand is easing, with $5 million in outflows on Wednesday, weighing on near-term investors' sentiment. The technical outlook for HYPE indicates a near-term mixed tone as the price remains capped below $90.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025, but a fresh inflation shock in the Eurozone could give the Euro an unexpected lifeline. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025, but a fresh inflation shock in the Eurozone could give the Euro (EUR) an unexpected lifeline. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082.