Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls await acceptance above $66.00, 100-day EMA breakout
- Silver attracts some follow-through buying on Monday amid the prevailing USD selling bias.
- The technical setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further appreciating move.
- A move beyond the 100-day EMA is needed to validate the near-term constructive outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) is seen building on Friday's bounce from mid-$63.00s and gaining some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The white metal, however, continues with its struggle to break above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and currently trades above mid-$65.00s, up around 1.50% for the day.
The US Dollar (USD) selling bias remains unabated as traders continue to scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets amid signs of cooling US inflation and weak consumer spending. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor underpinning demand for USD-denominated commodities, including the XAG/USD, and backs the case for further gains.
From a broader technical perspective, the XAG/USD has been oscillating in a familiar range over the past week or so. This could be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a goodish recovery from the year-to-date low, touched in July, and the recent breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July downfall.
Moreover, momentum indicators stay constructive as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 61, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram holds in positive territory. This suggests that upside attempts could persist even as the XAG/USD struggles to make it through the 100-day EMA pivotal resistance near the $66.33 area.
The said barrier is followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level at $67.93. A sustained move above the said levels would be needed to pave the way for further gains toward the mid-range Fibonacci hurdle at $72.02. On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 23.6% Fibo. near $62.87, where a break would expose the lower anchor of the current swing near $54.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
