Forex Today: Markets now look at tariffs and US fundamentals

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The US Dollar accelerated its downtrend and hit two-week lows amid further evidence that the US inflation remained sticky in January and despite steady concerns over a global trade war.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, February 14:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded well on the defensive, slipping back to the 107.20 region, or two-week lows amid declining US yields across the curve. Retail Sales will take centre stage on Friday, seconded by Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Business Inventories, and Export/Import Prices.

EUR/USD rose further north of the 1.0400 hurdle to reach two-week peaks near the 1.0450 level backed by the sharp sell-off in the US Dollar. Wholesale Prices in Germany come next ahead of the EMU’s advanced Employment Change and another estimate of the Q4 GDP Growth Rate in the broader euro area. In addition, the European Commission will release its Winter Forecasts.

GBP/USD kept the bullish stance unchanged, flirting with multi-week tops near 1.2550 following the marked improvement in the risk-linked assets.

USD/JPY met some renewed selling pressure and retreated from Wednesday’s multi-day peaks in the 154.80 area. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due.

AUD/USD eroded Wednesday’s pullback and managed to surpass the key resistance level at 0.6300 the figure on the back of the bearish tone in the Greenback.

WTI prices remained on the back foot and briefly dipped to two-month lows near the key $70.00 mark per barrel in response to potential ceasefire talks in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Gold prices added to Wednesday’s rebound and reclaimed the area beyond the $2,900 mark per ounce troy. Silver prices added to Wednesday’s uptick, hitting weekly peaks further north of the $32.00 mark per ounce.

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Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

GBP/USD keeps the firm tone above 1.3600

GBP/USD clings to its daily gains, although it gives back some of them and recedes toward the 1.3630-1.3620 band on Thursday. Cable’s uptick comes despite the modest bounce in the Greenback, while investors gear up for key data releases on the UK calendar on Friday.

EUR/USD treads water near 1.1670

EUR/USD gives away all its initial gains and receded to the sub-1.1700 region. The US Dollar’s late recovery has dragged the pair lower, leaving it practically unchanged following the NA session on Thursday. In the meantime, investors gear up for the release of preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,500

Gold manages to regain some composure and reclaim the area beyond the key $4,500 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The yellow metal’s daily decline comes amid the humble improvement in the US Dollar while US Treasury yields remain on the rise following Wednesday’s marked retracement across the curve.

XRP extends rally as bullish technical signals underpin breakout attempt

Ripple holds in bullish hands, as price action extends above $1.16 at the time of writing on Thursday. Since Monday, the cross-border remittance token has surged by more than 20%, reflecting a steady growth in risk-on sentiment. The broader crypto market sentiment is on an upward roll at 62 in the Greed territory on Thursday, up from 46 the previous day, according to the Fear & Greed Index.

Why long bonds have repriced the cost of money

The 30-year Treasury is 12 basis points below its highest level since before the financial crisis. Not its highest since 2023, or since the tightening cycle, but since June 12, 2007, the last time the longest bond in the world's deepest market yielded what it yields on Thursday. Getting there took two attempts and most of the year.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.