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Forex Today: Long-term extremes for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold amid coronavirus fears, USD rally

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 20:

Coronavirus: Fears are dominating markets once again after the number of cases in South Korea doubled and two people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship died. China has changed its counting methodology once again, causing confusion. On the economic front, Beijing has provided more liquidity and cut requirements for the household loans but some see it as insufficient.

USD/JPY has been consolidating its gains well above 111 after soaring on Wednesday. A combination of data-related dollar strength, receding coronavirus fears, the triggering of stops, and a late reaction to dismal Japanese growth figures are behind the meteoric rise. The downbeat market mood is helping the yen stabilize.

Gold prices have topped $1,612 amid coronavirus fears and other reasons. It is the highest since 2013. The precious metal has been extending its gains that began in 2019 and topped the peak seen around the Iran crisis early in 2020.

See Gold Price Analysis: Pulls back amid overbought RSI, multiple upside barriers ahead

AUD/USD has hit new 11-year lows at 0.6630 after Australia reported a disappointing increase in the unemployment rate to 5.3% in January. It is hovering around the lows last seen in 2009.

EUR/USD is also near the 34-month lows of 1.0782 after having almost fully closed the "Macron Gap" from 2017. The European Central Bank's minutes from the January decision may shed more light on the bank's next moves. Germany's weakness may prompt more stimulus. Details of the ECB's strategic review are also eyed.

See ECB Minutes Preview: Coronavirus, inflation, and strategic review comments set to move EUR/USD.

GBP/USD also dropped sharply to around 1.29 despite higher than expected inflation figures. The pound has come under pressure after EU ambassadors failed to agree on a position toward the UK in post-Brexit talks. UK retail sales are forecast to show an increase in January after two months of substantial falls.

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes have confirmed the bank's stance that it intends to leave rates unchanged. The minutes also provided several technical details about the Fed's plan to taper down the buying of short-term bonds.

See FOMC minutes mix economic optimism and caution

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is of interest on Thursday. On Wednesday, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the Producer Price Index are all beat expectations.

Cryptocurrencies suffered a sell-off late on Wednesday. Bitcoin is trading around $9,500, Ethereum at around $260, and XRP below $0.30.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.

Forex Today: Long-term extremes for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold amid coronavirus fears, USD rally

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