Forex Today: GBP dumped in Asia on UK politics, a quiet session ahead

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Broad-based GBP selling was the main underlying theme in Asia this Monday, driving risk-off flows across the financial markets on doubts over the UK PM May’s leadership. Hence, GBP/USD’s 40-pips gap down in early trades pushed the greenback broadly higher, rescuing the USD bulls after last week’s tumble on the US tax reform uncertainty. Amid resurgent USD demand, the Kiwi suffered the most, followed by Euro and Yen. The safe-haven gold remained buoyed amid weaker Asian equities and Treasury yields.

Main topics in Asia

GBP/USD gaps to 1.3158 by 40 pips on letter of no confidence in PM May

GBP/USD opened in Sydney in a bearish gap on the back of the weekend news article from The Times that was reporting….

Fed's Harker - Fed does not have to remove a lot of accommodation to return to neutral

Comments from Fed's Harker crossing the wires via Reuters…

EU’s Barnier: EU preparing for possible collapse of Brexit talks

BBC reports comments from the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, from his weekend interview with the French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche.

Fed policies won't have direct linkage to BOJ steps -BOJ official - Reuters

A senior BOJ official said on Monday that the Fed policies will not have a direct link to what the Bank of Japan (BOJ) does, but could affect BOJ's decisions via impact on the global economy.

UK consumer spending drops by most in over four years - Visa

Data from the payment company Visa published today showed the overall spending fell by 2% annually in October; the quickest decline since September 2013.

RBA's Debelle speech: Rate hike likely to come from a good economy and not a shock

Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the RBA is speaking at the Business Investment in Australia at the 2017 UBS Australasia Conference, Sydney, saying:

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, markets are poised for a quiet start to a busy week ahead, with no significant first-tier macro news on the card from across the globe, with the Canadian markets closed in observance of Remembrance Day. We have the second-liner German WPI just ahead of the Europe open. Meanwhile, the BoJ Governor Kuroda is scheduled to speak later on Monday about monetary policy at the University of Zurich.

GBP/USD: Vulnerable below 1.3100, UK politics back in play ahead of a Big week

The GBP/USD pair reversed sharply from near one-week tops and witnessed a bearish 40-pips gap shortly after the Asian opening bells this Monday, as investors reacted to the weekend’s political headlines from the UK.

EUR/USD - Corrective rally stalled at key MA, eyes US tax debate

The corrective rally in the EUR/USD ran out of steam at the descending 4-hour 100-MA on Friday as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 6 basis points to 2.4 percent.

Sell EUR/GBP this week on BOE/ECB monetary policy divergence – Barclays

Analysts at Barclays offer their thoughts on the EUR/GBP trade in the week ahead, in light of the contrasting views expected from the BOE Governor Carney and ECB Chief Draghi, when they speak at the ECB’s Central Bank Communications Conference on Tuesday.

UK week ahead: CPI and retail sales - Danske Bank

Analysts from Danske Bank, expect the CPI figures for October to show a small uptick, driven mainly by lingering effects of the weak GBP.

Key events for the week ahead - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook on the week's key events.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Sunday, Nov 12
21:00	KRW Export Price Growth (YoY)	8.0%		11.2% Revised from 10.9%
21:00	KRW Import Price Growth (YoY)	6.8%		10.8% Revised from 10.7%
23:50	JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM)	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
23:50	JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY)	3.4%	3.1%	3.0%
Monday, Nov 13
24h	COP Independence of Cartagena Day
24h	CAD Remembrance Day
00:10	USD FOMC Member Harker Speech
05:30	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			5.6%
06:00	RON Industrial Production (MoM)			2%
06:00	JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)			45.3%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (YoY)			1.6%
n/a	EUR Core Inflation (YoY)			2.3%
n/a	EUR Core Inflation (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	EUR Headline Inflation (MoM)			0.2%
09:00	CZK Current Account (MoM)			-8.1B
n/a	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
n/a	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.9%
11:00	INR Trade Deficit Government		$10.45B	$8.98B
n/a	PLN M3 Money Supply (YoY)			5.4%
13:00	PLN Current Account			€-100M
17:45	JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
19:00	USD Monthly Budget Statement		$-50B	$8B
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$193.1K
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			502.9K
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$161.3K
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£1.2K
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-118.9K
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€72.1K
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$51.6K
Tuesday, Nov 14
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Conditions			14
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence			7
02:00	CNY M2 Money Supply (YoY)		9.2%	9.2%
02:00	CNY Retail Sales (YoY)		10.4%	10.3%
02:00	CNY Industrial Production (YoY)		6.3%	6.6%
02:00	CNY Urban investment (YTD) (YoY)		7.4%	7.5%
02:00	CNY New Loans		780B	1,270B
02:00	CNY FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)			1.6%
n/a	INR WPI Inflation			2.6%
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.8%
07:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.1%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0%	0%
07:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		1.5%	1.5%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2.2%	0.8%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.7%
07:00	NOK Gross Domestic Product Growth			1.1%
07:00	NOK Gross Domestic Product Growth Mainland			0.7%
n/a	TRY Budget Balance			-6.4B
08:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		1.7%	1.7%
08:00	EUR HICP (MoM)		0.6%	0.6%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.6%	1.8%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	HUF Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3.2%
08:00	CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			4.7%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product Prelim (YoY)			3.3%
08:05	USD Fed's Evans Speech
08:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (MoM)			0.5%
08:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (YoY)			0.8%
08:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)			3.3%
08:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)			1.5%
08:30	SEK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
08:30	SEK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.1%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.4%	0.4%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.6%	1.5%
09:00	PLN Gross Domestic Product Qtr (YoY)			3.9%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.9%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.3%
09:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)		4.1%	3.9%
09:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%
09:30	GBP DCLG House Price Index (YoY)			5%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.3%	0.2%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a			8.4%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a		2.9%	3.3%
09:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a			0%
09:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a			2.5%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a			0.4%
09:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		3.1%	3.0%
09:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.8%	2.7%
09:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
10:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment			17.6
10:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Current Situation		87.5	87.0
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.1%	1.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		0%	0%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)		2.5%	2.5%
10:00	EUR Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)		3.4%	3.8%
10:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)		-0.5%	1.4%
10:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment			26.7
n/a	EUR 12-Month Letras Auction			-0.319%
n/a	EUR 6-Month Letras Auction			-0.378%
11:00	USD NFIB Business Optimism Index			103
11:00	BRL Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.5%
12:00	RUB Budget Fulfilment			-0.5%
13:00	PLN Net Inflation			1%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index (YoY)		2.4%	2.6%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)		2.2%	2.2%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)		0.2%	0.4%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
13:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2.6%
13:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-1%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-1.562M
21:45	NZD Retail Sales (QoQ)			2%
21:45	NZD Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ)			2.1%
23:00	KRW Unemployment Rate			3.7%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.3%	0.6%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized		1.3%	2.5%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY)			-0.4%
Wednesday, Nov 15
24h	BRL Republic Day
00:00	AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence			3.6%
00:30	AUD Wage Price Index (YoY)			1.9%
00:30	AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ)			0.5%
02:00	KRW Trade Balance			$7.3B
02:30	SGD Unemployment rate			2.1%
n/a	IDR Trade Balance			$1.76B
04:00	IDR Imports			13.13%
04:00	IDR Exports			15.6%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			2.5%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)			-1.1%
04:30	JPY Capacity Utilization			3.3%
06:00	EUR Current Account			€0.2B
06:00	NOK Trade Balance			9.2B
07:45	EUR Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM)			-0.2%
07:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)		0.1%	-0.2%
07:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		1.2%	1.2%
08:30	SEK Capacity Utilization			0.5%
08:55	ISK CBI Interest Rate Decision			4.25%
n/a	GBP 10-y Bond Auction			1.32%
09:30	GBP Claimant Count Rate			2.3%
09:30	GBP Claimant Count Change			1.7K
09:30	GBP Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)		2.2%	2.1%
09:30	GBP Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)		2.1%	2.2%
09:30	GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)		4.3%	4.3%
10:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.			€21.6B
10:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.			€16.1B
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)			5.5%
12:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			0%
13:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		26.3	30.2
13:30	USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.2%	1.0%
13:30	USD Retail Sales control group		0.3%	0.4%
13:30	USD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.1%	1.6%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)			0.1%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)			246.819
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)		1.7%	1.7%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.0%	2.2%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a			252.86
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.5%
15:00	USD Business Inventories		0.2%	0.7%
15:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			2.237M
n/a	PEN Gross Domestic Product			2.28%
n/a	ARS Consumer Price Index (MoM)			2%
21:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows			$67.2B
21:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows			$125B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-12.4B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥-729.7B
Thursday, Nov 16
00:30	AUD Employment Change s.a.		15.0K	19.8K
00:30	AUD Part-time employment			13.7K
00:30	AUD Fulltime employment			6.1K
00:30	AUD Participation Rate		65.2%	65.2%
00:30	AUD Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.6%	5.5%
01:00	AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation			4.3%
04:00	IDR Bank Indonesia Rate			5%
04:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)			4.7%
06:30	EUR ILO Unemployment			9.5%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Price Index (YoY)			3.4%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Price Index (MoM)			0.6%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			1.4%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			2.6%
08:00	CZK Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.7%
08:00	CZK Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
08:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (YoY)			1.8%
08:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (MoM)			0.2%
n/a	HKD Unemployment rate			3.1%
09:00	EUR Global Trade Balance			€2.769B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance EU			€0.242B
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.76%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		0.0%	-0.8%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		-0.8%	1.2%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		0.0%	-0.7%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		-0.4%	1.6%
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			1.457%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		0.9%	1.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)		-0.1%	0.4%
n/a	EUR Unemployment Rate			6.4%
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$426.3B
13:00	RUB Industrial Output			0.9%
13:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.901M
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			239K
13:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)			2.9%
13:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)		0.6%	0.7%
13:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)			2.7%
13:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)		0.5%	0.8%
13:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		24.0	27.9
13:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)			1.6%
13:30	CAD Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities			$9.85B
13:30	CAD Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities			$12.04B
14:15	USD Industrial Production (MoM)		0.5%	0.3%
14:15	USD Capacity Utilization		76.3%	76.0%
15:00	USD NAHB Housing Market Index		68	68
15:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			15B
15:30	CAD BoC Review
18:00	COP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			1.3%
21:30	NZD Business NZ PMI			57.5
21:45	NZD Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ)			1.4%
21:45	NZD Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ)			1.3%
Friday, Nov 17
24h	CZK Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day
24h	EUR Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day
00:30	AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)			-0.8%
00:30	AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)			-0.5%
09:00	EUR Current Account s.a			€33.3B
09:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€29.6B
10:00	EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)			1.6%
10:00	EUR Construction Output s.a (MoM)			-0.2%
11:30	CLP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			0.9%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$398.74B
13:30	USD Building Permits (MoM)		1.240M	1.215M
13:30	USD Housing Starts (MoM)		1.180M	1.127M
13:30	USD Building Permits Change			-4.5%
13:30	USD Housing Starts Change			-4.7%
13:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)			-0.7%
13:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.3%
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
13:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)			0.8%
13:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)			0.2%
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0.1%
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
15:00	USD Kansas Fed manufacturing activity			20
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			738
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions
Saturday, Nov 18
01:30	CNY House Price Index			6.3%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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