Forex Today: GBP dumped as Article 50 trigger looms

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The Asian session this Wednesday was dominated by the GBP sellers, hammering cable and GBP crosses across the board, as the UK PM May is set to pull the trigger to formalize Britain’s exit from the EU later today, after she signed the Article 50 letter earlier on the day. Meanwhile, the US dollar consolidated the previous heavy gains, leaving most majors in tight trading ranges.

In the day ahead, all eyes will remain on the developments surrounding the Article 50 trigger by the UK PM Theresa May, with the Article 50 letter already signed by May to be delivered by Tim Barrow today at 11:30 GMT. Thereafter, the European Council (EC) President Donald Tusk will hold a press conference at 13:45 GMT on the UK Article 50 notification.

On the data-front, we have a light session ahead, while the pending home sales data will be reported in the NA session. Also, FOMC member Evans speech is due on the cards later today.

Main topics in Asia

GBP/USD and crosses beaten up as Brexit looms

Sterling crosses are taking a beating with GBP/USD extending losses, GBP/JPY to a lesser degree, although EUR/GBP spiking on the day so far to 0.8763, and GBP/AUD on its knees to 1.6179 so far.

China Beige Book: Economy steady for now, but concern on momentum

China Beige Book International published earlier on the day showed that the Chinese economy held steady in the first quarter.

Gold offered near $ 1252 in Asia, despite Brexit concerns

Gold prices on Comex stalled its minor overnight recovery mode and resumed declines in the Asian session, as positive equities and treasury yields dampen the safe-haven demand for the bullion.

Trump: Important to get infrastructure done

The US President Trump was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, speaking at a reception for senators.

Key focus for the day ahead

All you need to know about UK’s Article 50 trigger

The historic triggering of the Article 50 by the UK PM Theresa May is just a few hours away, with the PM having already signed the Article 50 letter, which will be delivered by Tim Barrow today at 11:30 GMT.

EC’s Tusk to release draft Brexit guidelines for Barnier by end of Friday - BBG

According to three people familiar with the matter, the European Council (EC) President Donald Tusk is expected to publish draft guidelines for Brexit Chief Barnier by the end of this week after the UK PM May triggers the Article 50 today, Bloomberg reports.

UK: Time has finally come for Theresa May to trigger Article 50 - TDS

Research Team at TDS points out that the time has finally come for Theresa May to trigger Article 50, kicking off a two-year negotiating period with the rest of the European Union (EU27).

Trump said to meet with Cohn on Thursday to discuss tax overhaul - BBG

Bloomberg quotes three people familiar with the meeting that the US President Trump is expected to meet with Gary Cohn, head of the National Economic Council, on Thursday to discuss tax overhaul.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Tuesday, Mar 28
16:50	USD Fed's Yellen Speech
17:00	USD 5-Year Note Auction	1.950%		1.937%
17:00	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
19:00	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)	$-122M		$-106M
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	1.9M		4.5M
20:30	USD FOMC Member Powell Speech
21:00	KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI	78		79
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)	0.2%		0.5%
23:50	JPY Large Retailer's Sales	-2.7%		-1.1%
Wednesday, Mar 29
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.9%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)		7%	6%
06:00	CHF UBS Consumption Indicator			1.43
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence		100	100
07:00	HUF Unemployment Rate (3M)			4.3%
08:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			106.6
08:00	EUR Wage Inflation (YoY)			0.4%
08:00	EUR Wage Inflation (MoM)			0.1%
08:00	EUR Business Confidence		106.0	106.3
08:00	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)			104.5
08:30	GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)		£4.9B	£4.8B
08:30	GBP Consumer Credit		£1.300B	£1.416B
08:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals		69.900K	69.928K
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			7%
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)		0.5%	0.9%
09:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			19.4
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-2.7%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			6.5%
n/a	GBP UK government triggers Article 50 for Brexit
13:20	USD Fed's Evans Speech
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			0.4%
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)		2.1%	-2.8%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		1.183M	4.954M
15:30	USD Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren Speech
17:15	USD FOMC Member Williams speech
18:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			2.197%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥149.4B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-580.4B
Thursday, Mar 30
01:00	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			-2.2%
05:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)			12.04B
06:00	ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)			7.91%
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			85.7
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		2.7%	3.0%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			2%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.5%
07:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator		106.0	107.2
08:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			-2
08:00	NOK Retail Sales			1.4%
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			-0.9%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.28%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			1.11%
09:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			-5
09:00	EUR Services Sentiment		13.8	13.8
09:00	EUR Industrial Confidence		1.4	1.3
09:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator		108.2	108.0
09:00	EUR Business Climate		0.84	0.82
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)			5.9%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
09:30	EUR Business Confidence			1.3
09:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			-4.4
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.97%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.37%
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.0%	2.2%
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		2.0%	2.2%
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.5%	0.6%
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.5%	0.7%
12:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M			0.08%
12:00	BRL Retail Sales (MoM)			-2%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			2M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		248K	258K
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized			1.9%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index		2%	2%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)		2.1%	1.9%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)		1.2%	1.2%
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)			0.4%
12:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index			1.7%
13:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.2%
13:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
13:00	ZAR SARB Interest Rate Decision			7%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			-150B
15:00	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
15:15	USD FOMC Member Williams speech
19:00	MXN Central Bank Interest Rate			6.25%
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			-2.3%
20:00	MXN Fiscal Balance, pesos			-29.62B
21:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			0.8%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output (YoY)			1.7%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output Growth			3.3%
23:00	KRW Service Sector Output			0.5%
23:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence			-6
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		-0.2%	-0.3%
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)			-0.3%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.4%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.2%	0.1%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0.2%
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio		1.43	1.43
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate		3%	3%
23:30	JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)		-1.7%	-1.2%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		1.2%	-0.4%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			3.7%
Friday, Mar 31
00:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			37.2%
00:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			16.6
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)			0.2%
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			5.4%
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			54.2
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI			51.6
05:00	DKK Unemployment Rate			3.3%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			1.001M
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)		-1.1%	12.8%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			1.1%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		0.3%	2.3%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.7%	-0.8%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)			4.5%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)			0.6%
06:00	NOK Credit Indicator			5.1%
06:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)			0.7%
06:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)		0.1%	0.6%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		1.4%	1.4%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-4.31B
07:00	DKK Gross Domestic Product - Revised (YoY)			0.3%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			0.1%
07:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.2%
07:00	CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			1.9%
08:00	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.9%	5.9%
08:00	EUR Unemployment Change		-10K	-14K
08:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€3.4B
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a			98.94K
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a			3.1%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2%	2%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.7%	0.7%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)			-1%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)			-0.9%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)			0.8%
08:30	GBP Current Account		£-17.00B	£-25.49B
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.6%	1.6%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.5%	1.6%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		2.1%	0.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.8%	2.0%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		0.9%	0.9%
10:30	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			5,641.92B
11:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			1%
11:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.5%
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			4.1%
11:30	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)			3.4%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$366.78B
12:30	USD Personal Income (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)			1.9%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)			1.7%
12:30	USD Personal Spending		0.2%	0.2%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		56.5	57.4
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		97.6	97.6
14:30	BRL Nominal Budget Balance			0.299B
14:30	BRL Primary Budget Surplus			36.7B
15:00	COP National Jobless Rate			11.7%
18:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			652
19:00	ARS Primary Budget Balance (MoM)
20:00	BRL Unemployment Rate			12.6%
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$116.3K
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$89.1K
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			418.5K
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-107.844K
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-66.987K
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€-19.662K
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$44.955K

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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