|

Forex Today: Coronavirus concerns trigger dollar domination, commodity currencies climb down

Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 15: 

Markets kick off the week on the back foot as coronavirus cases rise in the US Sun Belt, Beijing, and Tokyo. The dollar and the yen are up, while others, especially commodity currencies, are down. A high-level call on Brexit, several data points, and further COVID-19 figures are of interest. 

Coronavirus spreading: Cases and hospitalizations continue increasing in California, Texas, Arizona, and around 20 other US states, causing fears of a slower economic recovery. 

Senior White House Adviser Larry Kudlow continues seeing a V-shaped recovery, cheering the economy. On the other hand, he rejected calls to extend the special unemployment payments, which expire at the end of July. That may slow the bounce. 

US racial tensions remain high after a policeman fatally shot a black man in Atlanta. Protests continue in the US, and the topic is high on the agenda ahead of the elections. 

The Empire State Manufacturing Index and a speech by Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve are on the agenda.

China: A COVID-19 outbreak has been reported in Beijing, and the Chinese capital closed down several sections and markets. Industrial output rose by 4.4% and retail sales fell by 2.8%, both showing the world's second-largest economy is recovering but missing expectations. 

Japan: Cases in Tokyo have jumped by 47, the most since early May. The Japanese yen continues benefiting from its safe-haven status. 

Europe continues reopening: France and Spain are both relaxing measures and attempting a return to normal. EUR/USD is weathering Monday's dollar strength and holding around 1.1250. The trade balance is due out later.

The UK is opening non-essential shops on Monday as it gradually loosens restrictions. GBP/USD suffered a significant downfall on Friday and has been extending its losses below 1.25. 

Brexit: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and several leading European officials will hold a video call to discuss deadlocked Brexit talks. Britain told Brussels it will not ask to extend the transition period that expires year-end, yet several lawmakers in London are urging the government to reconsider.

Gold has been edging lower but holding above $1,720. The precious metal benefited from the Federal Reserve's pessimism and ongoing support.

Oil prices continue their decline, with WTI dropping below the $35. The risk-off mood is the primary driver.

Cryptocurrencies have been declining, with Bitcoin holding around $9,100.

More Hong Kong Dollar Peg: How vulnerable is it and if it breaks, how will it happen? Explained

Author

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

More from Yohay Elam
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD sits at three-week highs above 0.7000 on hawkish RBA-speak

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and at three-week highs. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks and inflation concerns underpin the pair. However, the upside appears capped as the US Dollar attracts some buyers amid looming US-Iran uncertainty.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold advances modestly; targets $4,150

Gold prices manage to reverse three consecutive daily declines, trading just below the $4,150 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The precious metal’s recovery comes amid a slight drop in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields across the board and a widespread cautious tone from the US-Iran front.

Bitcoin eyes a break above $85,000 as institutional demand returns

Bitcoin edges higher above $83,000, extending its rebound from the 50-day EMA near $80,786. US-listed BTC spot ETFs recorded over $23 million in net inflows on Tuesday, following Monday's $526 million, signaling a return of institutional demand.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything
Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.