Forex Today: Critical vote on Brexit, mixed messages on trade talks, Trudeau returned as Canadian PM

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 22:

Brexit: Parliament will have its first say on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's deal today after 18:00 GMT. After Speaker John Bercow denied the government another "Meaningful Vote", Johnson has opted for the full legislation, known as the Withdrawal Act Bill (WAB). The House of Commons will then vote on the voting program which aims to conclude the process within three days, to get Brexit done by October 31. The opposition is set to push for amendments, including a customs union and a second referendum, which may derail the process. The EU is watching the process and ready to grant an extension. Another volatile day is likely for GBP/USD, which hovers around 1.30.
Trade talks: US officials have been sending mixed signals about the state of negotiations. White House adviser Larry Kudlow suggested that the US may drop its intention to slap new tariffs on December 15 if talks go well. President Donald Trump was also optimistic, while others suggested it may take move time. The broad market mood is positive. USD/JPY is below 109 and Gold under $1,500.
Canada: Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won a minority government and lost the popular vote. He is set to be returned as PM but will need support to pass major legislation. The Canadian dollar held up its gains, with USD/CAD trading below 1.31. The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Retail Sales are on the agenda today.
US Existing Home Sales and the Federal Budget Balance are of interest, but trade and Brexit will likely set the tone.
Cryptocurrencies have stabilized with Bitcoin around $8,200,

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.