Forex Today: Aussie hit by poor Australian retail sales, Powell, Trump speech eyed


Forex today was driven by the fundamentals released from the Asia-pac economies, with the Aussie worst hit by the disappointing Australian retail sales releases, which overshadowed stronger Chinese trade figures. The Kiwi too followed suit and remained better offered amid a sell-off in oil prices and softer New Zealand’s inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair circled around the 109 handle, as the downside was cushioned by broad-based US dollar strength.

The Asian equity markets traded cautiously, tracking the declines in oil prices, heading into the US President Trump’s speech about Iran’s nuclear deal due later on Tuesday.

Main topics in Asia

US Fed's Kaplan: accommodation should be removed gradually

Dallas Fed head Robert Kaplan spoke with reporters today in Florida, giving his thoughts on the US rate situation.

NAFTA renegotiations continue, fears of 'zombie deal' grow - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, fears are growing of a "zombie NAFTA deal" with the clock beginning to run out and all three NAFTA participants beginning to face widening differences …

Japan to set new debt-to-GDP ratio fiscal reform goal - Yomiuri - Reuters News

The Japanese government will adopt a new fiscal reform target that aims to keep the fiscal deficit to the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at 3 percent or below in the year ending in March 2022, the Yomiuri newspaper today. 

Australia retail sales arrive at 0.0 percent in March, a big miss

Australia's consumption, as represented by retail sales, remained relatively unchanged in the month of March, missing estimates by a big margin, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Tuesday. 

China's forex reserves hit 5-month low in April

China's foreign exchange reserves fell $17.97 billion in April to $3.125 trillion - the lowest since November 2017, the central bank data showed yesterday. The reserves had risen $8.34 billion in March. 

RBNZ: New Zealand Q2 2-year inflation expectations arrive at 2.01 percent vs. 2.11 percent last

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is out with it latest quarterly inflation expectations for the second quarter, with the key details found below.

China’s April trade balance (CNY): returns to surplus on exports rebound

China's trade balance for April, in Yuan terms, came in at CNY 182.8bn versus CNY 189.2bn expected and CNY -29.8bn last.

China’s April trade data (USD): shows surplus of 28.8 billion

The China customs published trade balance for April in USD terms, reporting a trade surplus on a solid rebound in exports.  

Key Focus ahead

The EU session remains holiday-thinned, with the French markets closed in observance of Victory Day. On the data front, the second-liner German industrial and trade figures will be reported ahead of the EU open while the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell titled "Monetary Policy Influences on Global Financial Conditions and International Capital Flows" in Zurich will be closely eyed on the European open. Meanwhile, the UK Halifax HPI will be released, offering some impetus to the GBP trading. Also, in focus remains the Australian annual budget release due at 0930 GMT, which will have a major impact on the AUD trades.

In the NA session, the US JOLTS job openings data will be published among other minority reports. However, the main event risk for today remains the Trump’s speech about the Iran Nuclear Deal, in Washington DC scheduled at 1800 GMT, which will draw special attention of the oil markets.

EUR/USD: Corrective rally likely on strong EZ data

The EUR/USD pair hit fresh 2017 low of 1.1897 on Monday and may drop further if the Eurozone data continues to disappoint market expectations.

GBP/USD looking glum near Friday's lows of 1.3550 as BoE Super Thursday lies ahead

Tuesday brings Halifax House Prices at 07:30 GMT for April, expected to show a -0.2% decline against the previous reading of 1.5%. While the indicator is a low-tier occurrence, it is expected to be an example of the lagging data that has been filing out of the UK as of late, and the Bank of England (BoE) …

US: Uncertainty around Iran, the JCPOA and oil – Nomura

Recent developments have placed a significant amount of market attention on the Iran nuclear agreement, according to analysts at Nomura.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, May 03
24h
 
 
Friday, May 04
24h
 
 
Saturday, May 05
24h
 
 
Monday, May 07
24h
 
 
Tuesday, May 08
05:45
 
2.9%
2.9%
06:00
 
3.0%
2.6%
06:00
 
0.8%
-1.6%
06:00
 
0.9%
-1.3%
06:00
 
€27.0B
€20.7B
06:00
 
1.75%
-3.20%
06:00
 
€19.8B
€19.2B
07:15
 
 
07:30
 
-0.2%
1.5%
07:30
 
3.3%
2.7%
09:30
 
 
10:00
 
105.2
104.7
12:15
 
220K
225K
12:55
 
 
0.5%
12:55
 
 
3.5%
14:00
 
6.101M
6.052M
n/a
 
51.3
52.6
15:30
 
 
1.65%
17:00
 
 
2.45%
18:00
 
 
20:30
 
 
3.427M
22:45
 
0%
1%
22:45
 
 
6%
23:01
 
-0.7%
1.4%
23:50
 
 
$1,268.3B

 

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