Forex Today: AUD shrugs-off RBA SoMP, China prices, Eyes on UK data

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Despite widespread risk-aversion in Asia this Friday, most FX majors were seen defying the risk-off flows and unimpressive Chinese inflation figures, as subdued trading around the US dollar came to their rescue. The greenback trades on the back versus its main peers amid the official US Govt shutdown news.

Meanwhile, the Antipodeans reversed the temporary declines seen following the Chinese CPI and RBA SoMP releases and stood resilient to the sell-off in the Asian equities and oil prices, as risk-off trades remained at full steam. The Yen also failed to benefit from increased demand for the safe-haven assets while gold prices traded flat around $ 1320 levels.

Main topics in Asia

US government preparing for possible shutdown - White House Official

Reuters is quoting White House's Office for Management and Budget Official (OMB) as saying that the government is preparing for a shutdown if Congress does not pass a funding bill by midnight.

RBA's Quarterly SOMP - Trims near-term jobless rate forecast, inflation forecasts little changed

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) trimmed the near-term unemployment forecast and kept the inflation and growth forecasts largely unchanged, the bank's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) shows.

Fed’s George: Three hikes this year and next would be reasonable

Kansas Fed President Esther George was out on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, commenting on the monetary policy and economic outlook.

China's CPI y/y softens in Jan, but matches estimates

China's Consumer Price Index (MoM) (January) came in at 0.6% vs 0.7% exp and 0.3% last, while Consumer Price Index (YoY) (January) was 1.5% vs 1.5% exp and 1.8% last.

S&P 500 futures turn negative as Asian markets drop

The S&P 500 futures have erased marginal gains, tracking the drop in the Asian equities.

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe on the final trading day of this week, we have a light economic calendar, except for the key UK macro news in the industrial and manufacturing production while the UK trade balance report will be also closely eyed among other minority reports.

The NA traders will eagerly await the release of the Canadian employment data amid a data-quiet session while the BOE MPC member Cunliffe’s speech will grab a lot of eyeballs after yesterday’s hawkish tone delivered by the BOE.

GBP/USD - Focus on UK manufacturing and trade data

Bank of England's hawkish tilt pushed the GBP/USD higher to 1.4067 yesterday, however, the risk aversion played a spoilsport and cable fell back to 1.3920.

EUR/USD still cautious in risk-averse environment, trying to slow decline

EUR/USD is heading into Friday European markets having middled through a back-and-forth session on Thursday, and the Euro has dug in its heels against the US Dollar following several days of declines.

Where's the Yield Tipping Point?

One key metric I'm watching is the extent to which bond yields have risen relative to equity indices. The chart shows the SP500 / 10-year yield ratio falling to its lowest level since March 2017.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Friday, Feb 09
00:30	AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
00:30	AUD Home Loans	-2.3%	-1.1%	1.6% Revised from 2.1%
00:30	AUD Investment Lending for Homes	-2.6%		1.5%
01:30	CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)	4.3%	4.4%	4.9%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.6%	0.7%	0.3%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.5%	1.5%	1.8%
04:30	JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)	-0.2%	0.2%	1.1%
06:45	CHF Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM)		3%	3%
09:30	GBP Industrial Production (YoY)		0.3%	2.5%
09:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
09:30	GBP Industrial Production (MoM)		-0.9%	0.4%
09:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)		1.2%	3.5%
09:30	GBP Goods Trade Balance		£-11.60B	£-12.23B
09:30	GBP Total Trade Balance		£-2.400B	£-2.804B
09:30	GBP Trade Balance; non-EU		£-4.10B	£-4.67B
13:00	GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)		0.3%	0.6%
13:30	CAD Unemployment Rate		5.8%	5.7%
13:30	CAD Participation rate		65.7%	65.8%
13:30	CAD Net Change in Employment		10.0K	78.6K
15:00	USD Wholesale Inventories		0.6%	0.2%
16:45	GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speech
18:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			765
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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