|

Forex Today: AUD caps gains on poor Aus data, RBA, a light session ahead

We had an eventful Asian session this Tuesday, dominated by the Australian data dump and RBA rate decision amid risk-on market profile, as the US tariffs induced global trade war fears ebbed. Therefore, downbeat Aus retail trade and current account data had little impact on the risk-on rally in AUD/USD. However, the upside lost legs just shy of 0.7800 after the RBA kept the rates on-hold.

Meanwhile, the Kiwi also held onto minor bids, in wake of the oil-price rally and higher Asian equities, which in turn weighed down the safe-haven Yen. The USD/JPY pair tested the 106.50 barrier before trimming gains following the comments from the BoJ Governor Kuroda.

Main topics in Asia

RBA leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its monetary policy meeting today, left the official cash rate (OCR) on-hold at a record low of 1.50%, as widely anticipated.

RBA: Appreciating AUD could slow economic activity, inflation

Following are the key headlines from the RBA monetary policy statement (via Reuters) …

Australia current account deficit widened to AUD $14 billion in fourth quarter

Australia current account deficit widened to AUD 14 billion, beating the estimated rise to AUD 12.6 billion from the previous quarter's print of AUD 9.1 billion

Australia January retail sales rebound is weaker than expected

Consumption, as represented by retail sales, rebounded in January, but missed estimates by a big margin, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported today. 

UK consumers want to spend but dont have the resources - BRC's Dickinson

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has warned the consumers want to spend but “just don’t have the resources”. 

OPEC/non-OPEC alliance is open to all producers - OPEC's Barkindo

The Secretary-General of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, is out with comments about the current state of the oil production marketplace and OPEC's hopeful outlook on an oil production alliance heading forward.

BoJ’s Kuroda: BoJ will take all necessary steps to achieve inflation target

More comments flowing in from the BoJ Chief Kuroda, as he continues to speak at his confirmation hearing at the upper house in parliament.

Key Focus ahead

Today’s macro calendar remains relatively light, with the second-liner data in the Eurozone retail PMI slated for release in the European session amid no economic releases from the UK docket. However, the speeches from the FOMC member Dudley and BOE MPC member Haldane will remain in focus for fresh trading impetus.

In the NA session, NZ GDT price index and Canada’s Ivey PMI will be released alongside the US factory orders and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism data. Also, of note remains the API US crude inventories report due later in the American afternoon.

EUR/USD options shed bearish bias, long-term outlook bullish

The EUR/USD risk reversals (implied vol premium for EUR calls vs EUR puts) rose to neutral (zero) yesterday vs. EUR 0.275 on Friday and 0.975 EUR puts on Feb. 12.

GBP/USD inching towards 1.39, BOE's Haldane to set the tone later

The GBP is geared up to put an end to that with the pair bouncing upwards recently after digging in its heels from the swing low of 1.3712 on March 1st. Sterling data is spread thin today.

Trump to meet with steel, aluminium consumer firms - BBG

Headlines crossed the wires via Bloomberg, citing that the US President Donald Trump is expected to meet with executives from the US firms that use aluminum and steel to discuss the tariffs proposals.

Key Events:

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Monday, Mar 05
24h
 
 
Tuesday, Mar 06
n/a
 
 
1.81%
12:30
 
 
13:55
 
 
3.3%
13:55
 
 
-0.6%
n/a
 
 
-0.5%
15:00
 
-1.3%
1.7%
n/a
 
 
56.7
15:00
 
 
51.3
15:00
 
56.3
55.2
16:30
 
 
1.495%
18:15
 
 
21:30
 
 
0.933M
21:35
 
 
22:30
 
 
22:30
 
 
54.3
23:50
 
 
$1,268.5B
Wednesday, Mar 07
00:30
 
2.2%
2.8%
00:30
 
0.5%
0.6%
01:30
 
 
05:00
 
107.8
107.4
05:00
 
119.5
120.2
08:00
 
 
¥3.161T
08:30
 
0.0%
-0.6%
08:30
 
2.4%
2.2%
10:00
 
2.7%
2.7%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.