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Forex Today: AUD caps gains on poor Aus data, RBA, a light session ahead

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

We had an eventful Asian session this Tuesday, dominated by the Australian data dump and RBA rate decision amid risk-on market profile, as the US tariffs induced global trade war fears ebbed. Therefore, downbeat Aus retail trade and current account data had little impact on the risk-on rally in AUD/USD. However, the upside lost legs just shy of 0.7800 after the RBA kept the rates on-hold.

Meanwhile, the Kiwi also held onto minor bids, in wake of the oil-price rally and higher Asian equities, which in turn weighed down the safe-haven Yen. The USD/JPY pair tested the 106.50 barrier before trimming gains following the comments from the BoJ Governor Kuroda.

Main topics in Asia

RBA leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its monetary policy meeting today, left the official cash rate (OCR) on-hold at a record low of 1.50%, as widely anticipated.

RBA: Appreciating AUD could slow economic activity, inflation

Following are the key headlines from the RBA monetary policy statement (via Reuters) …

Australia current account deficit widened to AUD $14 billion in fourth quarter

Australia current account deficit widened to AUD 14 billion, beating the estimated rise to AUD 12.6 billion from the previous quarter's print of AUD 9.1 billion

Australia January retail sales rebound is weaker than expected

Consumption, as represented by retail sales, rebounded in January, but missed estimates by a big margin, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported today.

UK consumers want to spend but dont have the resources - BRC's Dickinson

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has warned the consumers want to spend but “just don’t have the resources”.

OPEC/non-OPEC alliance is open to all producers - OPEC's Barkindo

The Secretary-General of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, is out with comments about the current state of the oil production marketplace and OPEC's hopeful outlook on an oil production alliance heading forward.

BoJ’s Kuroda: BoJ will take all necessary steps to achieve inflation target

More comments flowing in from the BoJ Chief Kuroda, as he continues to speak at his confirmation hearing at the upper house in parliament.

Key Focus ahead

Today’s macro calendar remains relatively light, with the second-liner data in the Eurozone retail PMI slated for release in the European session amid no economic releases from the UK docket. However, the speeches from the FOMC member Dudley and BOE MPC member Haldane will remain in focus for fresh trading impetus.

In the NA session, NZ GDT price index and Canada’s Ivey PMI will be released alongside the US factory orders and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism data. Also, of note remains the API US crude inventories report due later in the American afternoon.

EUR/USD options shed bearish bias, long-term outlook bullish

The EUR/USD risk reversals (implied vol premium for EUR calls vs EUR puts) rose to neutral (zero) yesterday vs. EUR 0.275 on Friday and 0.975 EUR puts on Feb. 12.

GBP/USD inching towards 1.39, BOE's Haldane to set the tone later

The GBP is geared up to put an end to that with the pair bouncing upwards recently after digging in its heels from the swing low of 1.3712 on March 1st. Sterling data is spread thin today.

Trump to meet with steel, aluminium consumer firms - BBG

Headlines crossed the wires via Bloomberg, citing that the US President Donald Trump is expected to meet with executives from the US firms that use aluminum and steel to discuss the tariffs proposals.

Key Events:

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Mar 05
24h	AUD Labour Day
Tuesday, Mar 06
n/a	GBP 30-y Bond Auction		1.81%
12:30	USD Fed's William Dudley speech
13:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)		3.3%
13:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)		-0.6%
n/a	NZD GDT Price Index		-0.5%
15:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)	-1.3%	1.7%
n/a	USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM)		56.7
15:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index		51.3
15:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a	56.3	55.2
16:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction		1.495%
18:15	GBP MPC Member Haldane Speech
21:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock		0.933M
21:35	AUD RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speech
22:30	USD FOMC Member Brainard Speech
22:30	AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index		54.3
23:50	JPY JP Foreign Reserves		$1,268.5B
Wednesday, Mar 07
00:30	AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	2.2%	2.8%
00:30	AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.5%	0.6%
01:30	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index	107.8	107.4
05:00	JPY Coincident Index	119.5	120.2
08:00	CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM)		¥3.161T
08:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM)	0.0%	-0.6%
08:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)	2.4%	2.2%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)	2.7%	2.7%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data

The British Pound is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran.

EUR/USD remains under pressure; looks at 1.1500 on firm US ISM

EUR/USD now accelerates its downtrend and trades in the low 1.1500s on the back of the marginal improvement in the US Dollar, all in the wake of solid US ISM Manufacturing data on Wednesday. The Greenback, in the meantime, remains far from a sustainable rebound in the current context of cooling geopolitical tensions.

Gold remains supported near $4,000

Gold adds to Friday’s pullback, although it remains well underpinned by the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce on Monday. The US Dollar’s inconclusive price action seems enough to cap the yellow metal’s potential upside, although renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading expectations of a Fed rate hike could limit the Greenback’s recovery.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

The Bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes

Once a goldmine for carry traders, Bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February. Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting Bitcoin futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.