Forex Today: AUD caps gains on poor Aus data, RBA, a light session ahead


We had an eventful Asian session this Tuesday, dominated by the Australian data dump and RBA rate decision amid risk-on market profile, as the US tariffs induced global trade war fears ebbed. Therefore, downbeat Aus retail trade and current account data had little impact on the risk-on rally in AUD/USD. However, the upside lost legs just shy of 0.7800 after the RBA kept the rates on-hold.

Meanwhile, the Kiwi also held onto minor bids, in wake of the oil-price rally and higher Asian equities, which in turn weighed down the safe-haven Yen. The USD/JPY pair tested the 106.50 barrier before trimming gains following the comments from the BoJ Governor Kuroda.

Main topics in Asia

RBA leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its monetary policy meeting today, left the official cash rate (OCR) on-hold at a record low of 1.50%, as widely anticipated.

RBA: Appreciating AUD could slow economic activity, inflation

Following are the key headlines from the RBA monetary policy statement (via Reuters) …

Australia current account deficit widened to AUD $14 billion in fourth quarter

Australia current account deficit widened to AUD 14 billion, beating the estimated rise to AUD 12.6 billion from the previous quarter's print of AUD 9.1 billion

Australia January retail sales rebound is weaker than expected

Consumption, as represented by retail sales, rebounded in January, but missed estimates by a big margin, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported today. 

UK consumers want to spend but dont have the resources - BRC's Dickinson

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has warned the consumers want to spend but “just don’t have the resources”. 

OPEC/non-OPEC alliance is open to all producers - OPEC's Barkindo

The Secretary-General of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, is out with comments about the current state of the oil production marketplace and OPEC's hopeful outlook on an oil production alliance heading forward.

BoJ’s Kuroda: BoJ will take all necessary steps to achieve inflation target

More comments flowing in from the BoJ Chief Kuroda, as he continues to speak at his confirmation hearing at the upper house in parliament.

Key Focus ahead

Today’s macro calendar remains relatively light, with the second-liner data in the Eurozone retail PMI slated for release in the European session amid no economic releases from the UK docket. However, the speeches from the FOMC member Dudley and BOE MPC member Haldane will remain in focus for fresh trading impetus.

In the NA session, NZ GDT price index and Canada’s Ivey PMI will be released alongside the US factory orders and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism data. Also, of note remains the API US crude inventories report due later in the American afternoon.

EUR/USD options shed bearish bias, long-term outlook bullish

The EUR/USD risk reversals (implied vol premium for EUR calls vs EUR puts) rose to neutral (zero) yesterday vs. EUR 0.275 on Friday and 0.975 EUR puts on Feb. 12.

GBP/USD inching towards 1.39, BOE's Haldane to set the tone later

The GBP is geared up to put an end to that with the pair bouncing upwards recently after digging in its heels from the swing low of 1.3712 on March 1st. Sterling data is spread thin today.

Trump to meet with steel, aluminium consumer firms - BBG

Headlines crossed the wires via Bloomberg, citing that the US President Donald Trump is expected to meet with executives from the US firms that use aluminum and steel to discuss the tariffs proposals.

Key Events:

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Monday, Mar 05
24h
 
 
Tuesday, Mar 06
n/a
 
 
1.81%
12:30
 
 
13:55
 
 
3.3%
13:55
 
 
-0.6%
n/a
 
 
-0.5%
15:00
 
-1.3%
1.7%
n/a
 
 
56.7
15:00
 
 
51.3
15:00
 
56.3
55.2
16:30
 
 
1.495%
18:15
 
 
21:30
 
 
0.933M
21:35
 
 
22:30
 
 
22:30
 
 
54.3
23:50
 
 
$1,268.5B
Wednesday, Mar 07
00:30
 
2.2%
2.8%
00:30
 
0.5%
0.6%
01:30
 
 
05:00
 
107.8
107.4
05:00
 
119.5
120.2
08:00
 
 
¥3.161T
08:30
 
0.0%
-0.6%
08:30
 
2.4%
2.2%
10:00
 
2.7%
2.7%

 

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