|

Forex Today: All eyes on ECB's policy announcements

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 21:

Investors remain on the sidelines and the market mood remains cautious early Thursday ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) highly-anticipated policy announcements. Later in the day, the US economic docket will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Survey. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stays relatively quiet near 107.00 and US stock index futures post modest losses.

The ECB is forecast to hike key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following its July policy meetings. Earlier in the week, however, some reports suggested that ECB policymakers were set to discuss a 50 bps hike. Additionally, the bank is expected to unveil its new anti-fragmentation tool. Previewing the ECB meeting, "the ECB decision has become more consequential for the euro – and arguably with more downside risks – after the report discussing a 50 bps rate hike," said FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam. "Given the specter of a Russian gas cut off and rationing, it is hard to see the bank vowing to raise borrowing costs by a certain amount in September. It is still a long time off."

ECB Preview: Three critical factors to watch, and why EUR/USD is set to plunge.

Meanwhile, Nord Stream 1 pipeline resumed gas flows following the 10-day maintenance. German Energy Regulator Bundesnetzagentur said on Thursday that the pre-maintenance level of 40% capacity could be exceeded today. Meanwhile, Italy is expected to go into a snap election in later September after Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced that he will resign.  

Earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its policy settings unchanged as expected. Commenting on the policy outlook, BOJ Chief Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that they will not hesitate to ease the monetary policy further if necessary. The USD/JPY pair edged higher during the Asian trading hours and was last seen trading in positive territory near 138.50.

EUR/USD trades sideways below 1.0200 after having snapped a three-day winning streak on Wednesday.

GBP/USD stays on the back foot early Thursday and continues to edge lower toward 1.1900. 

Gold plunged below $1,700 and was last seen trading deep in negative territory near $1,690. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds in positive territory above 3%, putting additional weight on XAU/USD's shoulders.

Bitcoin is down more than 1% near $23,000 in the early European session. Ethereum continues to edge lower and fluctuates below $1,500 after having registered modest losses on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.