Forecasting the Coming Week: ECB and US NFP steal the show


The Greenback traded on the back foot this week, managing to reclaim the 105.00 barrier and above when measured by the USD Index (DXY), although eventually giving away all those gains in response to the lack of any surprise from PCE data.

The US Dollar seems to have now entered a consolidative phase, always amidst alternating speculation regarding the timing of the interest rate cut by the Fed, somewhat rising yields and persevering prudence from Fed officials. A very interesting week in the US should have the labour market at the centre of the debate. That said, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending and the ISM Manufacturing are coming on June 3. Factory Orders, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and JOLTs Job Openings are due on June 4. The ADP Employment Change report is due on June 5 along with the final S&P Global Services PMI and the ISM Services PMI. On June 6, the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Balance of Trade results will be published, while the Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Wholesale Inventories are all due on June 7.

EUR/USD traded in a volatile fashion throughout the week, although a test or surpass of the 1.0900 barrier remained elusive. On June 3, the final HCOB Manufacturing PMI is due in Germany and the broader euro bloc. June 4 will see the release of Germany’s labour market report, while the final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the euro area are expected on June 5. On June 6 comes the salient event in the region with the ECB interest rate decision, followed by President Lagarde’s press conference and Retail Sales in the region. Germany’s Balance of Trade and another revision of Q1 GDP Growth Rate in the Euroland will close the week on June 7.

GBP/USD could not extend its recovery past the 1.2800 hurdle, ending the week with marginal losses in the low 1.2700s. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is due on June 3 seconded by the BRC Retail Sales Monitor on June 4. On June 5, the final S&P Global Services PMI is due, while the S&P Global Construction PMI will be unveiled on June 6.

USD/JPY managed to maintain the bullish bias for the second week in a row after reclaiming the area beyond the 157.00 barrier. On the Japanese docket, Capital Spending is due on June 3. The usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are expected on June 6, while Household Spending and the preliminary Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index are due on June7.

A volatile price action in AUD/USD left it marginally up on the weekly chart, always below the 0.6700 yardstick for the time being. The final Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI comes on June 3. The Ai group Industry Index, the final Judo Bank Services PMI, and Q1 GDP Growth Rate are all expected on June 5. On June 6 comes the Balance of Trade results seconded by Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

  • RBA Hauser and ECB’s Nagel speak on June 7.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

  • The BoC and the NBP will decide on rates on June 5.
  • The ECB is expected to cut its rates on June 6.
  • The RBI meets on June 7.
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