“Investors will be looking for any clues to assess the outlook for monetary policy. Our Fed watcher Philip Marey continues to argue that core inflation will continue to undershoot the Fed’s 2% target. Therefore, he expects only two hikes this year – one in June and another in December - instead of the three hikes that are implied by the dot plot.”
“The ISM report should confirm that the pace of expansion in the US manufacturing sector remained robust in December.”
“Poland’s Prime Minister Morawiecki is scheduled to meet with his Hungarian counterpart Orban. At this stage Hungary seems to be Poland’s only ally in the EU that could block potential sanctions that the EU may seek to impose on Poland for undermining checks and balances. If there is any hint that Orban’s support for Poland may not be as strong as most of investors currently assume, the zloty is set to weaken substantially.”
“Earlier this morning Turkey released the latest data that showed that inflation eased from a 14-year high of 12.98% y/y in November to 11.92% y/y in December – modestly higher than the consensus expectation of 11.85%. The central bank tightened monetary policy in December and we anticipate more hikes this year to support the lira.”
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