Analysts at Nomura offered a review of the FOMC minutes.
"The minutes from the 19-20 September FOMC meeting contained a more robust discussion on inflation but relatively little new information, especially in light of the numerous public statements by FOMC members since the meeting. The language in the minutes was consistent with a December hike, although a small group of members expressed significant concerns over this year’s underperformance in inflation.
Regarding the next rate hike, the minutes described three camps on a December rate hike: "many" expecting a rate hike this year if the "medium" term outlook remain unchanged; "several others" conditioning a December rate hike on the degree of their "confidence" in the inflation outlook; and "a few" arguing to wait for confirmation that inflation is "clearly" on a path towards 2%. Altogether, the distribution of views is consistent with an additional rate hike in December. However, the “several other” group could lean towards the dovish camp that a December hike should be deferred for a while if inflation data comes in weaker than expected before the December FOMC meeting. Although we maintain our call for a December rate hike, we note that a high degree of uncertainty remains."
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