Fitch: Oil prices to average USD52.5/bbl in 2017


Most major oil exporting countries in Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EEMEA) still face pressure from low oil prices nearly three years after the oil price shock hit, Fitch Ratings says in the report titled "Most Major EEMEA Oil Exporters Still Face Pressure from Low Prices."

Key highlights:

"Fitch forecasts oil prices to average USD52.5/bbl in 2017, up from USD45.1/bbl last year but still below fiscal break-even levels (the oil price at which the government's fiscal balance would be zero under Fitch's forecasts) for 11 of 14 major Fitch-rated EEMEA oil-exporting sovereigns. Only Kuwait has a 2017 fiscal break-even price appreciably below our forecast oil price."

"Fiscal break-even prices fell for most of these sovereigns last year, as national authorities responded with measures such as spending cuts, subsidy reforms, increasing production, and in some cases currency devaluation. However, these adjustments lagged the oil price fall. For three EEMEA sovereigns - Nigeria, Angola and Gabon - our forecast fiscal break-evens for 2017 are substantially higher than 2015, in part due to rising government spending." 

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