Fed's Musalem: Fed policy is well-positioned, but tariffs could impact inflation

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St Louis President Alberto Musalem added his voice to the chorus of Fedspeakers warning that US trade policy under the guidance of the Trump administration is poised to not only weigh on growth, but could also exacerbate price volatility, one of the Fed's favorite stand-in phrases for inflation.

Key highlights

Monetary policy currently well-positioned.

A balanced response to higher inflation and unemployment is feasible if inflation expectations stay anchored.

If inflation expectations become de-anchored, Fed policy should prioritize price stability.

US economy has underlying strength, labor market stable, inflation has eased but above 2% goal.

Economic policy uncertainty is unusually high.

Even after May 12th de-escalation, tariffs likely to lead to labor market softening and higher prices.

Tariffs as likely to have temporary as persistent effect on inflation.

If trade tensions are durably de-escalated, inflation could head back to target, labor market remain resilient, and current monetary policy would remain appropriate.

Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored.

Hearing businesses and households are holding back from decisions amid uncertainty.

If decisions have been somewhat paused, I'd expect it to affect the economic outlook.

Impact of uncertainty on economic activity tends to be pretty meaningful.

The labor force has continued to grow even with decrease in immigration.

I hear there is some scarcity of some types of workers in some industries.

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Solana extends correction despite ETF inflows, RWA adoption

Solana (SOL) price edges below $70 extending its losses for the fourth straight day this week. The institutional demand for Solana is building, with steady inflows so far this week and Morgan Stanley’s amended S-1 filing for a Solana-focused Exchange-Traded Fund.

The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.