|

Fed's Goolsbee: The Fed needs to focus on longer trends.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that markets tend to overreact to interest rate changes, and that the Fed should maintain a slow and steady approach to reaching the neutral rate.

Key highlights

(In regards to a December rate cut or pause) I don't like tying our hands, still more data to come.

Markets react immediately and in most extreme terms; that's not the Fed's timetable.

The Fed needs to focus on longer trends.

We are going to be looking at rate cuts along the lines of September Fed policymaker projections.

I am personally comfortable with not charging right towards neutral and slow down as we approach it.

Inflation numbers have to keep improving.

If we started to see reversal on inflation progress, we would have to figure out if it is a bump.

Not a lot has changed on that in last couple weeks.

Recent inflation has been a little higher than the target, if that is extended, it's too high.

There's a lot of volatility on inflation data series.

Neutral is significantly lower than where the Fed policy rate is now.

If productivity growth stays higher than trend, need to be careful relying on GDP growth rate to check if economhy is overheating.

I am perfectly comfortable with disagreement within Fed over where the neutral rate is.

The dispute on neutral rate could support slower cuts.

Author

Joshua Gibson

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

More from Joshua Gibson
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold bounces-off weekly lows near $4,300 as focus shifts to US CPI

Gold rebounds from its lowest level in over a week, near $4,310, in the Asian session on Friday as rising Fed rate-hike bets, bolstered by US PPI, underpin the US Dollar. Traders now look to the US CPI report for more cues about the Fed's policy path amid inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. The outlook will drive the USD and influence the non-yielding bullion.

Ethereum holds above $2,400 as PPI data strengthens rate hike expectations
Ethereum (ETH) is down 0.7% on Thursday as the second-largest cryptocurrency looks to recover from earlier pressure following the release of stronger US inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.4% in August, matching market expectations after a revised 0.1% increase in July, according to the US Labor Department.
Dollar comeback case 'a decent one' – September Fed hike 'back in play'
The dollar was left nursing heavy losses against most of its major peers after last month’s Treasury buyback wobble. Notwithstanding this, we think that the case for a near-term bounce in the greenback is a decent one. Warsh's hawkish pivot at Jackson Hole, followed by what was a blowout US payrolls report for August, has put a September rate hike from the Fed back in play.
Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight
The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.