Fed Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for BDXY – TDS

Economists at TD Securities discuss the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and its implications for the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.

More Hawkish (10%)

Fed delivers a pause, while also strongly hinting at the possibility of an additional rate increase before the year-end. The dot plot median shows one or two fewer 2024 rate cuts vs. June. Chair Powell emphasizes the strong rebound in output so far in Q3, while also downplaying the upcoming shocks to the economy in Q4 judging them as temporary. BDXY +0.25%.

Base Case (70%)

Fed delivers a hawkish pause after hiking in July, with the Committee leaving the door open for an additional rate increase in Nov-Dec. The dot plot will also show fewer rate cuts in 2024 (consistent with a message of ‘higher for longer’). We expect Chair Powell to reiterate that the Fed remains data dependent and to underscore that while economic data since the July FOMC meeting has improved, more evidence is needed. BDXY +0.10%.

Dovish (20%)

Fed pauses, but signals that further rate hikes may not be required (dot plot median shows no more hikes for 2023). Powell mentions that the best course is to be patient given the totality of policy tightening, the ongoing reduction of credit supply, and the upcoming shocks that will hit output in Q4. BDXY -0.40%.