Fed: Dovish Powell spurs rate cut expectations – ABN AMRO


In view of Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, despite aggressive pricing for Fed rate cuts, the FOMC statement and a dovish Chair Powell press conference appeared to more than satisfy market expectations, with bond yields moving lower and equities pushing higher.

Key Quotes

“Most significantly, the FOMC statement removed reference to ‘patience’ over policy, and strengthened Powell’s recent remark that the Fed will ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’ by removing the qualifier ‘as always’. As well as highlighting the increased uncertainty over the outlook as the Fed’s primary concern, the statement bolstered the case for easing by pointing to ‘muted inflation pressures’. While the characterisation of survey-based inflation expectations was kept as ‘little changed’, in the press conference Powell noted that they are ‘near the bottom’ of historical ranges and expressed concern over the risk of expectations becoming unanchored.”

“While the ‘dots’ projections showed just one rate cut expected by the median committee member in 2020, 7 of 17 members now expect 50bp of cuts in 2019. In the press conference, Chair Powell gave this a further dovish spin by stating that even those who expected no change in policy this year nonetheless saw a stronger case for further accommodation.”

“Powell also countered suggestions that a US-China trade deal alone might be enough to prevent rate cuts, by pointing to the weakness in business investment and manufacturing, and the slowdown in global growth as additional factors the committee is weighing.”

“Our base case remains that the Fed will implement three 25bp cuts by Q1 2020, starting at the July meeting.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bounces off the lows as the market mood improves

EUR/USD is bouncing toward 1.18, recovering from the fall triggered by upbeat US jobs figures and escalating Sino-American tensions. Investors are eyeing the fiscal stimulus impasse in Washington after Trump's executive order and the market mood has somewhat improved.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD recovering toward 1.31 as the dollar weakens

GBP/USD has recovered toward 1.31 as the dollar pares early gains amid the impasse in Washington over new fiscal stimulus. A survey showing that a third of UK employers may lay off workers is weighing on the pound.

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD retreats to $2030 after making a run to $2050

Gold prices spiked to the upside after the beginning of the American session but then pulled back erasing gains. XAU/USD jumped to $2049.70/oz, and as of writing, it trades at $2033, practically at the same level it closed on Friday.

Gold News

It is time for King Bitcoin

The crypto board starts the week stuck on critical levels. The war for dominance has been favorable to Ethereum for weeks, and the graphics seem to indicate that it's now Bitcoin's turn to win a few battles.

Read more

WTI: $42.30 is the level to beat for the bulls

WTI (futures on Nymex) climbed nearly 1.50% in a bid to test the $42 mark on Monday, in the wake of the upbeat outlook painted by Saudi Aramco’s CEO Nasser and expectations that Iraq will cut output in August.

Oil News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures