Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, notes that Eurozone’s industrial production fell by -0.4% month on month, and -2% on an annual basis in July, confirming the declining trend that has been in place since December 2017.
“The poor start to the third quarter will make it difficult to see a positive contribution from manufacturing to GDP growth in 3Q, which confirms prolonged slowdown concerns in the eurozone.”
“The breakdown of production by type of good makes it quite clear that consumer demand is currently crucial in keeping GDP growth in the positive territory as the production of consumer goods, both durable and non-durable continues to grow on an annual basis, while intermediate and capital goods production is currently -3% and -3.4% lower than in July 2018.”
“For the ECB, the already wrapped up staff projections will be more important than today’s production figures, but today’s figures do come as a confirmation of the sluggish environment that the ECB is trying to battle.”
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