Eurozone GDP growth to rebound in Q4 as ECB ends its bond buying – Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll, the Eurozone economic growth is expected to see an upturn in the fourth quarter of 2018, paving the way for the European Central Bank (ECB) to conclude its stimulus programme next month as planned.

Key Findings:

“The Nov 8-13 poll of nearly 90 economists predicted economic growth of 0.4 percent this quarter, double the unexpectedly weak 0.2 percent - the slowest pace in the bloc more than four years - of the third.

That is despite a trade war between the U.S. and China that shows no signs of letting up, and political turmoil over Brexit and Italy’s budget.

For the second month in a row, all economists in Reuters polls unanimously said the central bank would not extend the 2.6 trillion euro ($2.9 trillion) purchase programme into next year.

Average annual inflation is expected to be below the ECB’s 2 percent target ceiling until 2021 at the earliest, suggesting weak price pressures will not shift the central bank at this stage.

The ECB forecast to hike its deposit rate to -0.25 percent in the third quarter of next year from -0.4 percent currently and the refinancing rate to 0.10 percent from zero in the last quarter of 2019 remains unchanged.”