Next week data from the Eurozone included the PMIs, the German Ifo and the European Central Bank minutes, all to be released on Thursday. According to analysts from Danske Bank, the PMI is likely to show a small uptick from the current low level, while the German ifo number may already reflect the trade uncertainty.
“In the euro area, we are in for a Super Thursday, with German and euro area flash PMI, German ifo and ECB minutes. The latest months’ gloomy PMIs have been somewhat at odds with the brighter hard macro data. Despite the 0.4% q/q Q1 GDP growth, the euro area manufacturing PMI remained below the recession-indicating territory of 50 for the third successive month in April, while the service sector still seemed to underpin growth.”
“We expect to see a very limited rebound in the manufacturing print to 48.3 on the back of the improving order situation in the April survey. The latest negative developments in the trade negotiations between the US and China could weigh on the PMIs and on the German ifo print, which we are due to get on Thursday as well. Thus, we see scope for a decline in the expectations component, while we expect some stabilisation in the business climate print on the back of the hard macro data.”
“The ECB minutes from the 11 April meeting may prove uneventful for the market. While we are interested in the discussion on inflation and the growth outlook to assess the ‘delayed-not-derailed’ message from Mario Draghi, we doubt there will be any new colour on this, or on the potential ‘tiering system’ and the upcoming TLTRO3 modalities.”
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