EUR/USD: Traders await German data and US retail sales for further direction


  • EUR/USD trades near 1.1230 ahead of London open on Monday.
  • The pair failed to extend recent recovery as Fed Chair refrained from giving much importance to Friday’s NFP miss.
  • Upcoming details from Germany and the US could direct near-term moves.

EUR/USD struggles around 1.1230 while heading towards European sessions on Monday. The pair fall short of extending Friday’s NFP-backed recovery as recent comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave little importance to the data miss. Monthly readings of German trade balance and industrial production could offer intermediate moves ahead of diverting market attention to the US retail sales numbers.

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair recovered from a near thirty-month low after the US nonfarm payrolls missed +180K forecast by big time with +20K figure for February month. 

However, the buyers couldn’t rule on Monday as the Fed Chair maintained his outlook of the US economy and interest rates during latest appearances at the Stanford University and also at the CBS interview.

Seasonally adjusted January month industrial production and trade balance details from Germany can act as early trigger for the quote around 07:00 GMT followed by February month retail sales numbers from the US at 12:30 GMT.

The German industrial production and trade balance could support the EUR strength if matching +0.4% and Euro 21.0 billion market consensus versus -0.4% and 19.4 billion Euro previous numbers. Though, the US retail sales could blow the regional currency’s strength as the forecast suggests a +0.6% growth of the retail sales control group figure against -1.7% earlier decline. The retail sales (MoM) may recover to +0.1% from -1.2% whereas retail sales ex-autos could also rise by +0.3% versus -1.8% earlier figure.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In spite of bouncing off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its December 2016 to February 2018 uptrend, EUR/USD needs to conquer 1.1260 and 1.1330 in order to revisit 1.1375 including 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

On the downside, 1.1210 and 1.1185 may offer immediate supports, a break of which can drag the pair toward June 2017 low near 1.1120 and then to 1.1100 round-figure.

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