EUR/USD stabilises above 1.1400 as market’s enter their typical pre-weekend lull, bears eye key 1.1380 support

  • EUR/USD has stabilised just above 1.1400, having dropped back from earlier session highs in the 1.1480s.
  • Technicians will be eyeing a key level of support in the 1.1380 area.

EUR/USD selling has continued into the US trading session, though the bearish intra-day momentum has for the moment eased with the pair finding support above the psychologically important 1.1400 figure. At current levels around the 1.1410 mark, the pair is trading lower by about 0.4% and is over 0.6% lower versus its Asia Pacific session highs in the 1.1480s. Technicians will be eyeing support in the 1.1380 area in the form of the late-November/December highs. Some EUR/USD bulls will be hoping that, after this week’s bullish breakout from the late-November/December ascending triangle, a retest of this key area of support might prove an excellent entry point to reload on longs and to target a move towards 1.1500.

Given the low volumes, thin liquidity conditions typical of late-Friday trade, such a move would likely have to wait until next week. Some might argue that Friday’s fundamental developments (weaker than expected US December Retail Sales and January Consumer Sentiment figures) suggest a higher EUR/USD making sense. There isn't much by way of tier one US data next week, but if the NY and Philly Fed surveys for January are also sufficiently week, that could back up this argument. But near-term weakness, which will in part be a reflection of surging Omicron infections in the US, will not worry the Fed, which is much more focused on elevated inflation and the tight labour market.

While there will be no more Fedspeak next week given the central bank will have entered blackout ahead of the January meeting, recent hawkishness from FOMC members is likely to remain a key talking point amongst market participants and presents upside USD risk. Dollar bulls betting that Fed/ECB policy divergence will this year weigh on EUR/USD may see current levels to the north of 1.1400 as attractive to add shorts and target a move towards November/December lows in the 1.1200 area.


Today last price 1.1409
Today Daily Change -0.0043
Today Daily Change % -0.38
Today daily open 1.1452
Daily SMA20 1.1331
Daily SMA50 1.1337
Daily SMA100 1.151
Daily SMA200 1.1734
Previous Daily High 1.1482
Previous Daily Low 1.1436
Previous Weekly High 1.1379
Previous Weekly Low 1.1272
Previous Monthly High 1.1386
Previous Monthly Low 1.1222
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1464
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1453
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1432
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1411
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1386
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1477
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1502
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1523



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