EUR/USD - Risk Reversal points to bull trap

Following two consecutive Doji like candles with long lower shadows, the EUR/USD pair rallied to a high of 1.1848 on Friday. The gains were fuelled by a weaker-than-expected US inflation release and the resulting drop in the Fed rate hike odds.

Daily chart

 

Friday’s rally marks a sharp rebound from the rising trend line support. The technical pattern is encouraging for bulls, however, options market calls for caution.

One-month 25-delta risk reversal

  • The one-month 25-delta risk reversal has dipped into the negative territory over the last few days despite the rebound in the EUR/USD from the trend line support.
  • It indicates, the demand for Put options or downside bets has strengthened.
  • Hence, caution is advised as Friday’s gains could end up being a bull trap.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The spot traded largely flat lined in Asia around 1.1830 levels. A break above 1.1848 [previous day’s high] would open doors for 1.1910 [recent high], above which a major hurdle is seen at 1.20 [psychological level].

On the downside, breach of support at 1.1799 [1-hour 200-MA] could yield a re-test of 1-hour 50-MA located at 1.1774 and 1-hour 100-MA located at 1.1769.

  TREND INDEX OB/OS INDEX VOLATILY INDEX
15M Bullish Neutral High
1H Bullish Neutral Shrinking
4H Bullish Neutral Expanding
1D Slightly Bullish Neutral Shrinking
1W Bullish Overbought High

 

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