|

EUR/USD replicates sluggish markets around 1.0700 amid challenges for ECB hawks, Fed blackout

  • EUR/USD stays depressed despite latest corrective bounce, remains sidelined overall.
  • Downbeat German data, easing inflation expectations prod ECB hawks.
  • Fed policymakers observe pre-FOMC silence period, light calendar adds to the market’s indecision.
  • Receding hawkish bets on FOMC fails to inspire Euro bears despite downbeat EU signals.

EUR/USD licks its wounds around 1.0700 as bulls and bears jostle during a sluggish week comprising unimpressive data and the Fed blackout. That said, the Euro price pared intraday losses during late Tuesday but remains sidelined as the early Asian session morning restricts the market’s moves.

That said, the quote dropped the previous day amid downbeat EU data and receding hawkish concerns from the European Central Bank (ECB). However, a lack of inspiration for the US Dollar bulls put a floor under the EUR/USD price.

On Tuesday, Germany’s Factory Orders slumped to -9.9% YoY in April versus -8.9% expected and -11.2% (revised). Elsewhere, Eurozone Retail Sales for April improved on YoY to -2.6% from -3.3% (revised) prior and -3.0% expected but marked an unimpressive monthly figure of 0.0% compared to 0.2% market forecasts and -0.4% previous readings (revised).

Furthermore, results of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly survey of consumer expectations for inflation unveils that inflation expectations among Eurozone consumers decreased significantly in April, to 4.1% for the next 12 months from 5.0% expected in March. However, the growth expectations improved to -0.8% versus -1.0% expected in March.

It should be noted that European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Klaas Knot said on Tuesday, “We will keep tightening policy until we see inflation returning to 2% but this must be done step by step.”

On a different page, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.13% on a day to 104.12 by the end of Tuesday as a resolution to the United States default fears propelled bond offerings from the government but marked a mixed response on the yields as the 10-year coupons remain sluggish at around 3.69% whereas the two-year counterparts rose a bit to 4.50%. However, downbeat United States activity data released on Monday, as well as the previously dovish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Officials ahead of the pre-Fed blackout, restrict the US Dollar moves.

Amid these pays, the technology stocks remained firmer but the manufacturing ones weighed on the sentiment and pared Wall Street’s gains. Even so, the US equities closed with minor gains.

Looking ahead, German Industrial Production and the US foreign trade numbers decorate today’s economic calendar but major attention should be given to the risk catalysts for clear directions.

Technical analysis

Despite the latest inaction, the EUR/USD pair remains above the previous resistance line stretched from early May, as well as the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.0650 and 1.0690, which in turn keeps the Euro buyers hopeful.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price1.0695
Today Daily Change-0.0018
Today Daily Change %-0.17%
Today daily open1.0713
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.0798
Daily SMA501.0895
Daily SMA1001.0812
Daily SMA2001.0505
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.0722
Previous Daily Low1.0675
Previous Weekly High1.0779
Previous Weekly Low1.0635
Previous Monthly High1.1092
Previous Monthly Low1.0635
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.0704
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.0693
Daily Pivot Point S11.0684
Daily Pivot Point S21.0656
Daily Pivot Point S31.0637
Daily Pivot Point R11.0732
Daily Pivot Point R21.0751
Daily Pivot Point R31.078

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD struggles below 1.1750 as 2025 draws to a close

EUR/USD struggles below 1.1750 in the European session on Wednesday, the final day of 2025. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar edges higher despite Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the December policy meeting, released on Tuesday, showing that most policymakers stressed the need for further interest rate cuts.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 amid renewed USD demand

GBP/USD remains under pressure near 1.3450 in European trading on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold recovers losses above $4,300 amid the year-end grind

Gold price reverses a dip below $4,300 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, recovering intraday losses. The precious metal draws support from the prospect of further US interest rate cuts in 2026. Gold has surged about 65% this year and is set to record its biggest annual gains since 1979.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).