EUR/USD pulls back with all eyes on the US consumer confidence release
- The Euro holds near a fresh two-month low against the US Dollar, on track for its worst weekly performance this year.
- Investors are awaiting French President Macron to name the next prime minister in the next hours.
- The Dollar thrives on political uncertainty, ahead of the release of US consumer confidence data.
EUR/USD's recovery is losing steam ahead of Friday's US session opening. The pair is trading right above 1.1560 at the time of writing, down from session highs near 1.1590. The common currency has lost over 1.4% so far this week and is on track for its worst weekly performance this year, with all eyes on the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which is expected to show a further deterioration.
Political uncertainty in France has hammered the Euro this week, after the French Prime Minister (PM), Sébastien Lecornu, resigned unexpectedly. The market is now awaiting President Emmanuel Macron to appoint a new one, who will face the same challenges as the previous five PMs to approve a tightening budget, amid fierce opposition within the parliament.
The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is drawing support from concerns about France and similar worries in Japan, as the pro-stimulus new President of the Liberal Democratic Party Sanae Takaichi emerges as the likely next Prime Minister. With the release of most US economic indicators delayed due to the US government shutdown, recent dovish comments from Fed policymakers have failed to dent USD strength.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.19% | -0.12% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.16% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.24% | -0.19% | -0.03% | 0.10% | -0.06% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.19% | -0.24% | -0.39% | -0.32% | -0.15% | -0.08% | -0.30% | |
| JPY | 0.12% | 0.19% | 0.39% | 0.20% | 0.25% | 0.32% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.32% | -0.20% | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | -0.10% | 0.15% | -0.25% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.16% | 0.06% | 0.08% | -0.32% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.30% | -0.13% | -0.01% | 0.15% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar reigns amid political uncertainty
- The US Dollar has outperformed its peers this week. The USD Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Dollar against six major currencies, has rallied nearly 1.7% this week so far and is set for its best weekly performance in the year to date. The political impasse in France and concerns that the new Japanese cabinet might hamper the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) tightening plans have triggered a rush for safety this week, boosting speculative demand for the Greenback.
- In France, President Macron is expected to name his sixth Prime Minister within the next 24 hours, to avert the opposition's demands for parliamentary elections. The market, however, remains sceptical about his chances of approving a new budget, amid a deeply divided parliament.
- On Thursday, the European Central Bank's September Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts revealed an increasing concern about the uncertain global context, although policymakers considered that there is no immediate pressure to change the bank's policy. Regarding inflation, the committee has shown some divergence, with some members observing upside risks while others see price pressures abating. The impact of the accounts on the Euro was marginal.
- San Francisco Fed President, Mary Daly, has called for further rate cuts in the coming months amid a "worrisome" deterioration of the US labour market.
- Later on Friday, the preliminary US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide one of the few data releases since the government's shutdown. The survey is expected to show a further deterioration in consumers' confidence, with the index dropping for the third consecutive month to 54.2 in October from September's 55.1.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains vulnerable below 1.1600
EUR/USD broke a key support area at 1.1600 on Thursday, dropping to fresh two-month lows and highlighting the strong bearish momentum. Technical indicators are pointing lower, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart low but still above oversold levels. In these conditions, rallies look likely to attract sellers.
To the upside, the pair might find resistance at the previous support area right near 1.1575 (August 27 low) followed by Wednesday's low, right above 1.1600. Further up, the September 25 low and October 9 high, in the area of 1.1650, will come into focus.
Immediate support is at the descending channel bottom, as seen on the 4-hour chart since mid-September, and Thursday's low near 1.1540. Further down, the August 5 low, near 1.1525, would be the last support area ahead of the August 1 low, at 1.1395.
Economic Indicator
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Oct 10, 2025 14:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 54.2
Previous: 55.1
Source: University of Michigan
Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Economic Indicator
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index
The University of Michigan's Inflation Expectations gauge captures how much consumers anticipate prices will change over the coming 12 months. It comes out in two rounds—a preliminary release that tends to pack a bigger punch, followed by a revised update two weeks later.
Read more.Next release: Fri Oct 10, 2025 14:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 51.7
Source: University of Michigan
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
