EUR/USD remains overvalued - Westpac

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

According to Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, EUR/USD is unlikely to be a forefront beneficiary of any short term USD weakness and suggests that EUR/USD remains overvalued which is likely to check upside potential.

Key Quotes

“In any case the Fed will likely deliver more hikes than currently priced in for 2019 (about +25bp), ensuring EUR/USD equilibrium continues to decline.”

“We estimate that short term EUR/USD equilibrium (based on short and long term core Eurozone-US govt bond spreads, Eurozone peripheral sovereign spreads and Brent crude) is 1.0725, leaving EUR/USD a good 5.7% above fair value.”

“Going forward; Italy’s leaders have shown signs of softening their hardline stance on budget widening. That could see sovereign spreads narrow and boost EUR/USD fair value slightly.”

“With EUR/USD still overvalued and pressure on its equilibrium level from yield spreads likely to be maintained it’s not clear EUR/USD can muster sustained strength.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.