|

EUR/USD remains below 1.1800 due to renewed trade concerns, Eurozone Retail sales eyed

  • EUR/USD faces challenges amid renewed Trump tariff concerns.
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that tariffs could be rolled back to April 2 levels on August 1.
  • The EU Commission stated that it is close to finalizing a framework for a trade agreement with the United States.

EUR/USD edges lower after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1780 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair struggles due to renewed tariff concerns, driven by the comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Eurozone Retail Sales and German Industrial Production will be eyed later in the day.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners, warning that tariffs could revert to April 2 levels on August 1 if no progress is made on a trade deal. He clarified that August 1 is not another new tariff deadline but suggested that it could still give trading partners more time to renegotiate tariff rates.

Additionally, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed the new tariffs are set to take effect on August 1. Lutnick added that Trump is currently finalising the specific rates and agreements and may send out 12 or 15 letters on tariffs on Monday. He also indicated that trade deals or letters with most nations will be done by July 9.

The European Union (EU) Commission announced that it is nearing a framework for a trade agreement with the United States (US) to avoid the reintroduction of aggressive tariffs by the July 9 deadline. Also, Bloomberg reported that “Some European Union carmakers and capitals are pushing for an agreement with Trump that would allow for tariff relief in return for increasing investment in the US.

The downside of the EUR/USD pair could be restrained as the Euro (EUR) may appreciate due to hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Lagarde said that “we will do whatever we must do to reach inflation target.”

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (MoM)

The Retail Sales data, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures the volume of retail sales in the Eurozone. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term, which accounts for around 5% of the total value added of the Eurozone economies. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the prior month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish

Read more.

Next release: Mon Jul 07, 2025 09:00

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: -0.7%

Previous: 0.1%

Source: Eurostat

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

More from Akhtar Faruqui
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD retreats below 1.1750 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.1750 on Friday. Although trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, the modest recovery seen in the US Dollar causes the pair to edge lower. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, stabilizes above 1.3450

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and moves sideways above 1.3450 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold climbs toward $4,400 following deep correction

Gold reverses its direction and advances toward $4,400 after suffering heavy losses amid profit-taking before the New Year holiday. Growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy and persistent geopolitical risks seem to be helping XAU/USD stretch higher.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).