Analysts at ING see the EUR/USD pair with a neutral bias for next week and expect it to trade between 1.0980 and 1.1100. Their one-month target is 1.1000.
“Despite a fairly busy week on the US and EZ data fronts, the impact on EUR/USD should be limited, with the cross remaining range bound. In the US, the FOMC meeting (Wed) is unlikely to deliver a major surprise, with the central bank on hold after delivering three cuts so far this year. Chair Powell should re-emphasise the data-dependent approach of the committee. With Nov US CPI inflation to print 2%YoY (Wed) and Nov retail sales (Fri) rising, the case for no urgent rate cuts should remain in place. Also, today’s labour market data further supported the notion of stability in interest rates for now.”
“In the EZ, new ECB President Lagarde is hosting her first press conference. No material change is expected with QE just being reintroduced this quarter. New ECB staff projections will be published with both CPI and growth projections for 2020 lowered (and 2022 projections newly revealed). We also don’t expect any clarity about Lagarde’s preference on the ECB strategic review. We expect a modest improvement in the Dec German ZEW Index.”
“A possible Conservative party victory in the UK election and the associated sterling strength may push EUR/USD modestly higher via the GBP/USD flow channel.”
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